The Johnny Henderson Grand Annual is rarely a race to overcomplicate. It is a flat-out two-mile handicap chase, usually run at a furious gallop, and it tends to favour a horse who can travel, jump accurately under pressure and still find plenty after the last.
This year looks no different.
Timeform’s pace forecast points to a very strong gallop, and that is a major part of the puzzle. In a race like this, you do not want a horse that will waste energy fighting for its head or forcing it too early. You want one that can sit handy enough, stay out of trouble and come through late when others have cried enough.
That brings Vanderpoel firmly into the picture.
Ben Pauling’s seven-year-old arrives as one of the more appealing profiles in the field. He is still lightly raced over fences, has won his last two starts, and looks exactly the type to keep improving in a race where untapped potential matters far more than exposed handicap form. HRB has him near the top of the stack and the Timeform view is also strong, noting that he should be well suited by a soundly-run race. That reads very well for a Grand Annual.
His latest wins came in smaller fields, so this is a different test altogether, but there was plenty to like about the way he travelled and finished his races. He looks straightforward, he jumps well enough, and off a mark of 141 he still has room to manoeuvre. In a race full of seasoned handicappers and a few with questions to answer, he looks the right sort.
The obvious threat is Jazzy Matty, who won this race last year and has clearly been trained with another crack at it in mind. His Cheltenham Festival record commands respect and he is one of the few in the field proven under these exact conditions. The downside is obvious enough as well: he is now higher in the weights and no longer hiding from the handicapper. He should run well, but repeating the feat will be harder.
Be Aware is another with strong claims on pure ability. His novice chase form is good, including a solid effort over course and distance, and he has the right trainer and jockey combination for this sort of race. The problem is the likely pace. He has made the running and raced freely this season, and that is not always a recipe for success in the Grand Annual. If he gets into a battle too soon, he could set it up for something finishing stronger.
Among the Irish, Inthepocket is interesting. He has the class to feature and his latest Leopardstown run suggested there was still plenty of life in his mark. If he builds on that, he could easily outrun his price. Ballysax Hank also has a solid look about him and has shaped better than the bare result in stronger races than this. He is not dismissed, but others make more appeal as likely winners.
A few others have bits and pieces in their favour. Calico is a previous course-and-distance winner and has been primed before for big handicaps. Jour D’Evasion is progressive and arrives on a hat-trick. Jasko Des Dames has Cheltenham form and may come on for his latest run. All have some sort of case, but all also need things to fall just right.
The key point is that this race usually goes to a horse who is still ahead of the assessor and well suited by a proper end-to-end test. Vanderpoel fits that bill better than most. He has the right age, the right profile, the right mark and, crucially, the right running style for what should be a strongly run contest.
This is not the race for sentiment and it is not the race for getting cute. There are plenty you can make excuses for, but only a handful look set up to run to a career best.
Verdict: Vanderpoel to win.
Main danger: Jazzy Matty.
Best of the rest: Inthepocket.