This is not a deep race, but it is a winnable one for Star Cast, who looks the solid play in the 5.00 at Newcastle.
She has already shown she can do the job over this course and distance, winning here in January off a mark of 56. She is only 2 lb higher now and her latest run is easy enough to forgive. She finished seventh over the same trip last time, but that does not tell the full story. She was not ideally positioned and never really got the race run to suit. In a race like this, that matters.
The shape of this contest is important. There is no obvious front runner and the pace looks no more than even. HRB’s race-shape summary suggests a moderate setup, while Timeform notes that runners coming from off the pace often fare well over this trip at Newcastle. That should suit Star Cast, who is one of the stronger late finishers in the field.
The obvious threats are Wave Rock and Staffordshire, both last-time-out winners. Wave Rock is unexposed and could have more to come after getting off the mark at Wolverhampton. She is respected, but she is up 4 lb and now has to prove she can back that up at Newcastle. Staffordshire also won over this course and distance last time and has the best HRB figure in the field, but he has not been the most reliable and is not one to trust blindly.
Maple is another with claims after a good second over C&D in January. He should be staying on late and has a race setup that ought to suit, but he does not have quite the same appeal as the selection.
At the prices, Star Cast makes most appeal. She has proven course form, a workable mark and a race likely to play to her strengths. In a weak Class 6, that is usually enough.
Verdict
Star Cast is the pick to regain the winning thread.
Predicted 1-2-3
Star Cast
Wave Rock
Maple