The Weatherbys Champion Bumper is never short of hype, but the shape of this year’s race is familiar enough. Willie Mullins turns up mob-handed, Gordon Elliott has a strong team behind him, and the British challenge looks up against it unless one of them finds a chunk from nowhere.
The starting point has to be Mullins. His record in this race is ridiculous and there is no point trying to be clever for the sake of it. If you want the most likely winner, you start with his runners and work out whether any of the others can match them.
Timeform have gone with Love Sign D’Aunou, and the case is obvious. He hacked up at Naas on debut, won by a street and did it with the sort of ease that makes people sit up. Patrick Mullins takes the ride, which matters in this race, and the stable know exactly what kind of horse is needed. He is clearly the one with the biggest aura coming in.
That said, there is a small but important note of caution. His big win came in a race where he got on with things, and this Champion Bumper looks likely to be run at a proper gallop. In a race of this nature, pace can undo even the best horse if he is forced to do too much too soon. Cheltenham is not the place to get lit up early.
That is why Broadway Ted makes plenty of appeal. He heads the HRB ratings and, unlike some of these, he has already done it in a proper Grade 2 scrap. His Leopardstown win was not flashy, but it was solid, and that matters. He beat With Nolimit by a short head there, with Charismatic Kid behind, and the form looks dependable. More importantly, he shapes like the sort who will be suited by a strongly-run race and a finish that asks for more than speed alone.
In a bumper full of unknowns, proven substance counts for a lot. Broadway Ted has it.
Keep Him Company is another who commands respect. Jack Kennedy rides him from the Elliott squad, which catches the eye, and he arrives unbeaten. He has done nothing wrong and looks straightforward, but this is his toughest test by some distance and the market probably has him about right rather than wrong.
Of the rest, The Mourne Rambler is interesting. His Leopardstown success suggested he has more than just a change of gear, and Colin Keane being booked is no negative. He looks the sort who could run very well without being the obvious headline horse in the field.
Among the Mullins second wave, Quiryn and The Irish Avatar are not easy to dismiss. Both were impressive winners first time up and both come here with the potential to improve sharply. That is the problem when taking on Mullins in this race: the one you think is the second or third string can easily turn out to be the best of them.
There are a few I am happy to oppose. Bass Hunter is admirable and has won a Listed race, but dominating a Champion Bumper is a different matter entirely. Mets Ta Ceinture is interesting on French form and gets plenty of weight, but she is being asked a serious question in a race that usually exposes anything less than top class. With Nolimit is tough and likeable, though he may again find one too strong late on.
The race trends do not need overthinking. Irish yards dominate it, Mullins dominates it even more, and five-year-olds with class and untapped potential are the usual answer. That points straight back to the market principals.
So where does that leave us?
If you want the most likely winner, it is still Love Sign D’Aunou. The Naas win was too taking to ignore, he comes from the right yard, and he could simply be far better than what we have seen so far.
But if you want the horse who makes most appeal as a betting proposition, Broadway Ted is the one. He has the strongest HRB figure in the field, proper Grade 2 form, and the likely race setup looks tailor-made. He may not have the same star billing, but he has more hard evidence in the book.
Verdict
Broadway Ted is the value play.
Love Sign D’Aunou is the one most likely to be top class.
If forced to name the winner, I would just side with Broadway Ted to outstay and outbattle them up the hill.
Final selection: Broadway Ted