This is only a five-runner fillies’ handicap, but it is still a race where the winner looks fairly easy to narrow down.
The one with the strongest overall profile is Party Bear. She arrives here with the best recent piece of form in the race after finishing a close third in a class 2 at Lingfield, and that is a fair bit better than what most of these have been doing. Before that she won over 7f at Lingfield and shaped like a filly still going the right way.
She is also dropping into a class 5, which is a major plus. In a race of this standard, that edge alone makes her the one they all have to beat.
There is one slight concern. The pace looks weak. HRB’s race shape points to no obvious front-runner, and Timeform also expects a very modest tempo. In small-field races like this, tactical position can matter just as much as raw ability. If Party Bear ends up further back than ideal, she could give one of the others first run.
Even so, she still looks the percentage call.
Renesmee is the obvious danger. She won at Chelmsford on Saturday and is clearly in good heart. The booking of Kyle McHugh, who takes off 7lb and has a good record on her, is another positive. She is tough, fit and reliable, and in a race that may turn tactical that makes her dangerous. The concern is whether she has much more in hand now, especially with a penalty to carry.
Hilltop has bits of form that give her a chance, and HRB marks her down as the strongest late finisher in the field. The problem is that a weakly-run race may not play to those strengths. She could easily run on into the frame without quite getting there in time.
Bear Rock is back down in grade after being outclassed last time and may get a handy run near the pace. That could keep her involved for longer than the market expects, but on balance she still looks a little short of the principals.
Penny Mountain has course form and the inside draw, but she is up against better-treated rivals and will need plenty to fall right.
This looks a race where there is no need to overcomplicate things. Party Bear has the strongest recent form, the class drop is in her favour, and if ridden with enough intent she should prove too good for this field.
Verdict
Party Bear to win, with Renesmee the main danger.