This is a modest Class 6 sprint, but it does not look a messy one. The likely shape of the race matters here and it points towards horses that can race handily rather than those needing everything to drop right from off the pace.
The one that stands out most is Fortunate Star. He comes here on the back of two wins, including a course-and-distance success five days ago, and his HRB figure of 299 is the best in the field. That is the strongest recent number on offer and it backs up what the eye already tells you: he is in form and thriving in the visor.
The obvious knock is that those last two wins came in classified company and now he goes back into a handicap under a penalty. That is fair enough, but this is not a deep race and he still looks well enough treated. More importantly, he should get a decent tactical position, which matters over Newcastle’s straight 5f. Timeform also makes the point that he is likely to be better placed than some of the hold-up horses, and that could be decisive.
Master Dandy is the main danger. He has won two of his last three starts and was only just touched off in the other. He is solid, arrives in form and should be thereabouts again. The issue is that he does have a habit of travelling like the winner and finding less than expected late on. In this grade he is still a major player, but he is not one I would trust more than Fortunate Star.
Azucena is another with a solid chance. She is a multiple course-and-distance winner and has been running well enough without getting her head in front. She is reliable at this level and should run her race, but stall 8 is not ideal and she may again find one or two better treated than herself.
Of the rest, Gustav Graves and Let’s Go Hugo are the interesting closers, but both look vulnerable to the race setup. Newcastle 5f is not always kind to horses played late, especially in races where there is no guaranteed collapse in front. Okami is not badly handicapped and has course form, but he looks more likely to place than win. Little Mi Mi has claims on older form, though the break is a small concern, while Running Cool has too much to prove.
This race should be decided by position and recent sharpness, and on both counts Fortunate Star comes out best. He is fit, in winning form, proven over the track and trip, and has the strongest recent HRB figure in the line-up.
Verdict
Fortunate Star is the one to beat.
Master Dandy is the danger.
Azucena can nick a place.