This is not a strong race, but it is the sort of low-grade Newcastle sprint where course form counts for plenty and that points firmly towards Tomorrow Day.
Mark Usher’s gelding returned from a break with a very solid second at Chelmsford over 7f, going down only narrowly and shaping like a horse ready to win. Back at Newcastle, back over 6f, and with his excellent course record in the bank, he makes the most appeal. He is a four-time course-and-distance winner, which is a major edge in this grade, and there is every chance that latest run has brought him right to the boil.
The pace set-up does not look fierce. There is no standout front-runner, so this may turn into a race where track position and knowing how to handle the straight matter more than raw speed. That suits Tomorrow Day, who should be able to sit handy enough and use his proven finishing effort where it matters.
The obvious dangers are The Gay Blade and Tickets. Both arrive after recent wins over this course and distance, and both have recent figures that put them right in the mix. The issue is that those wins came in classified company, and this is a different test back in a handicap. They are respected, but neither makes quite as much appeal as a horse with Tomorrow Day’s profile.
Instant Bond is another to consider. He is well enough treated and has been running creditably, but he is still a maiden after plenty of chances and does not look the percentage call in a finish. Golden Prosperity could improve from his latest outing, but he looks more of a place player than the likely winner.
In a race full of exposed sprinters, this is about siding with the horse who has the strongest blend of course record, recent encouragement and suitability to the likely race shape. That horse is Tomorrow Day.
Verdict: Tomorrow Day to win
Main danger: The Gay Blade
Best of the rest: Tickets