The Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase is rarely a race to get cute with. It usually goes to a proven specialist, an Irish-trained runner, or ideally both. This year’s renewal again points firmly in that direction.
The market has centred on Favori De Champdou, Stumptown and Desertmore House, and that makes perfect sense. They bring the strongest recent cross-country form into the race and all have solid claims. But when you strip it back to what matters most in this contest, Stumptown still looks the one to beat.
He won this race 12 months ago, he is unbeaten in two runs over this course and distance, and he arrives here off the back of victory in the Velka Pardubicka. That is proper specialist form, not just ordinary staying chase form dressed up to fit the race. He knows these banks, he stays all day and he jumps them with the confidence of a horse made for the job.
There is always a temptation to oppose last year’s winner when the handicap has caught up with him, but this race has often gone to classier, battle-hardened types carrying big weights. Stumptown fits that mould. He has already shown he can handle Cheltenham’s unique test, and in a race where rhythm and experience count for plenty, that matters more than trying to pinch a few pounds from the assessor.
Favori De Champdou is the obvious danger. His recent form is excellent, he won the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown at a huge price and followed up impressively over this course in January. Gordon Elliott’s record in this race commands respect and his HRB figure is the best in the field. He is not here by accident. The question is whether he is quite as solid as Stumptown in a race of this exact nature. His latest win was very good, but Stumptown’s body of work in cross-country company still looks stronger.
Desertmore House is the interesting one. Timeform has latched on to him and there is a fair case. He shaped well when second in the La Touche Cup, won nicely at Punchestown in November and should be much more at home back in this discipline after a poor hurdle run over Christmas. He is lightly weighted and could travel strongly for a long way. Even so, he has a bit to prove around Cheltenham compared to the two at the head of the market.
Vanillier also has place claims. He did well to finish third in this race last year after giving away ground by almost taking the wrong course early, and his Punchestown prep win was encouraging. He is not dismissed, but he may just find one or two better treated and better suited again.
The trends are straightforward enough. Recent winners have tended to be experienced, high-class, Irish-trained specialists. That narrows the focus quickly and keeps bringing the argument back to Stumptown and Favori De Champdou. Between the two, Stumptown has the strongest course credentials and the most convincing specialist profile.
This is not the race to overthink. Stumptown has already shown he is the right horse for this job and there is no strong reason to desert him now.
Verdict
Stumptown is the pick to win it again, with Favori De Champdou the main threat and Desertmore House next best.