The 2.18 at Huntingdon is not a race packed with depth, and that usually pays to remember. In these low-grade handicap chases, the answer is often the horse arriving in form, jumping well and still looking ahead of the handicapper. On that basis, Rap Soul is the one they all have to beat.
Richard Bandey’s seven-year-old has looked a completely different animal since going over fences. His first chase win at Plumpton was decisive enough, but the important part was what he did next. He came back on Monday, under a 12lb higher mark, and won again. That tells you two things. First, the initial improvement was no fluke. Second, his current rating may still not have caught up with him.
This is a small field and not an especially strong one. That matters because most of these are exposed, quirky or simply not progressing. Rap Soul is the only runner in the line-up bringing solid recent winning chase form. In a Class 5 like this, that is a major edge.
The quick turnaround is the obvious question. He ran only two days ago, and that is never ideal, but it is easier to forgive when a horse is thriving. Some horses regress off a hard race, others hold their form when confidence is high. Rap Soul’s profile suggests he is in that sweet spot where racing has brought him forward rather than taken it out of him.
Tactically, the race is not straightforward. Timeform’s pace view suggests a weakly-run contest that should suit those up with the pace, and that again points to Rap Soul. HRB’s race-shape notes hint at a bit more pressure up front, with more than one likely pace angle involved. Even so, in a six-runner race I still want the horse most likely to be in the right place, jumping soundly and applying pressure. Rap Soul fits that better than anything else.
The main danger looks to be Cloudy Wednesday. He is an older horse, but he knows how to win at this level and has course-and-distance form in the book. His latest second here was encouraging after a break, and the return of cheekpieces could sharpen him up. He is not open to the same degree as the favourite, but he is reliable enough to make a race of it if Rap Soul is feeling Monday’s effort.
Lunar Ocean is likely to attract support after finishing second to Rap Soul at Plumpton. The problem is that his profile is becoming familiar. He runs well, gives the impression he might win, then finds one too good. He has had enough chances now to make him hard to trust as a finisher.
Big Boy Barney has bits of form that give him an outside squeak, but he has not looked the easiest ride and has questions to answer over fences. Synchronist has yet to convince in this discipline, while Wings On Wheels needs a big step forward to get involved.
Recent renewals of this race have tended to go to horses well treated for the grade rather than anything flashy, and that again points the finger at Rap Soul. He does not need to be spectacular here. He just needs to run to the level he has shown in his last two starts.
This looks a straightforward race to assess. Rap Soul is the form horse, the improver and the most likely winner. Cloudy Wednesday is the one to chase him home, while Lunar Ocean looks booked for another honourable defeat.
Verdict
Rap Soul should take plenty of beating and is the clear pick.
Cloudy Wednesday is the main threat.
Lunar Ocean can hit the frame again without looking an obvious winner.