The 3.38 at Huntingdon is not a race loaded with depth, but it does look a good opportunity for Chevington to get his head in front.
This is a Class 5 handicap hurdle over just short of two miles, and the key to it is not getting seduced by one flashy run in a field full of unreliable types. In races like this, you want the horse with the most solid overall case, and that points firmly to Chevington.
His second at Hereford in December was the best recent piece of form on offer. He was returning from a long absence that day, yet still shaped like a horse with enough ability to win a race of this nature. He travelled well, kept on properly and, crucially, did it in a bigger and stronger field than several of these have been contesting. For a lightly raced seven-year-old, that was the run of a horse who still has a bit of room off a mark of 100.
The market is likely to give plenty of respect to Risk It All, and that is understandable after his latest second at Fakenham. The problem is that he has become hard to trust. He has shown enough ability to win a race like this, but his profile is patchy and he is the sort who often travels well without quite delivering when it matters. In a weak handicap, taking a short price about that type is not especially appealing.
Dotties Star is the obvious danger. He arrives here after a solid runner-up effort over course and distance, and that recent Huntingdon form gives him a strong chance. He is one of the few in the line-up who comes here with his current wellbeing beyond doubt. Even so, he does not look bombproof and may again find one stronger at the finish.
At a bigger price, Bluenose Belle has a bit more appeal than some of the exposed outsiders. Her hurdle form last spring was progressive, and the poor run on the Flat last time is easy enough to forgive. Back in this sphere, she has place claims and could easily outrun her odds.
As for the rest, most come with fairly obvious negatives. Best Night has bits and pieces of form but is not straightforward. Pottersjetamay is interesting back over hurdles but arrives with questions after two pull-ups over fences. Bongo Man, Jafimgoso, Farhh Echo and Fond Farewell all need to show much more.
The likely pace does not look overly strong, which could make positioning important, but this still looks a race where basic reliability and recent substance matter more than any clever angle. On that score, Chevington makes the most appeal.
He is not a certainty, because none of these are, but he looks the runner with the right blend of form, scope and handicapping potential.
Verdict: Chevington to win, with Dotties Star the main threat.