The 6.30 at Wolverhampton is a small-field fillies’ novice over 6f, but it is not a race lacking depth. There are a few with solid placed form, one or two unexposed types, and a clear focal point at the top of the market.
That focal point is Champonie.
George Boughey’s filly made a winning debut at Newcastle last month and did it the right way. She was not sharp from the gates, had to gather herself, and still found enough to get on top late. For a newcomer, that was a smart effort. More importantly, it suggested she has both ability and the attitude to cope when things do not go perfectly. In races like this, that matters.
She does have to carry a penalty, and that is the only serious concern. In novice company, giving weight away is never ideal, especially against fillies who have already shown a fair level of form. But on balance, she looks the one with the most upside and the strongest chance of taking a step forward.
The biggest threat may be Paradise Walk. Ralph Beckett’s filly has finished second on both starts and has the profile of one who can be competitive again. Timeform’s pace angle is in her favour as well, with prominent racers often suited over this course and distance. She has the experience, the draw is workable, and she should get a sensible trip if breaking on terms. The issue is whether she has the finishing kick to put the race to bed.
Welcome Retreat brings the most exposed recent form and there is little doubt she will make a race of it. She has gone close on her last two starts and sets a fair standard for the others to aim at. However, there is a suspicion she may be vulnerable to a filly with a bit more class or improvement in hand. She looks solid, but perhaps not quite the one you want to trust most for win purposes.
Egotistical is the interesting each-way type in the race, even in a nine-runner field. Roger Varian’s filly has improved from run to run and her latest second at Newcastle suggested that a return to 6f will suit. She is not the finished article yet, and that is exactly why she commands respect. Of those outside the front three in the market, she looks the one most likely to step forward.
As for the remainder, they all have something to prove. Timescape gets weight as the older filly, but her recent return was disappointing. Sizzling Seixas is not dismissed out of hand on debut, particularly from a yard capable of readying one, but asking a newcomer to beat race-fit fillies in this sort of contest is a stiff task. The others look up against it.
This race should tell us plenty, but there is no need to overcomplicate it. Champonie has already shown she can win over the trip, she shaped as though there is more to come, and she is with a yard that knows how to place these progressive fillies well.
She is the one to beat.
Verdict
Champonie to win, with Paradise Walk the main danger and Egotistical the value alternative.