The Boyle Sports Irish EBF Shannon Spray Mares’ Novice Hurdle does not look a deep Grade 3 on paper, but it does throw up a proper clash between proven form and untapped potential.
The market will latch on to How’s Hannah, and there is no mystery as to why. Willie Mullins trains her, she is unbeaten under Rules, and she looked a useful mare when winning her hurdling debut at Punchestown. She travelled well, jumped soundly and got the job done on heavy ground over a similar trip. Timeform is firmly in her corner and the track-position angle also helps, with handier racers usually better served than deep hold-up types in races of this nature here.
That all makes perfect sense. She is the obvious one.
The problem is price and experience. She has had only one run over hurdles and is now asked to step straight into graded company against a mare who has already done the hard yards.
That mare is Zanoosh, and she looks the one with the strongest all-round case. She comes here on a hat-trick, all three wins have come on testing ground, and her latest success in a listed race at Navan was the best piece of form on offer. She won by eight lengths and did it with plenty in hand. That is not guesswork or stable reputation; that is substance.
HRB’s historical trend data also gives her a major push. She is comfortably clear of the field on overall fit, which matters when the race has a fair level of historical evidence behind it. She is proven, progressive and already operating to a level that should make her very hard to beat.
There is a slight tactical concern. HRB’s race shape points to a strong pace and possible collapse, while Timeform notes that hold-up horses can be disadvantaged over this trip here. Zanoosh does tend to come from just off them, so she may need the race to unfold cleanly. Even so, her finishing effort is a genuine weapon, and if they go too hard in front she is the one most likely to pick up the pieces.
Of the rest, Changeyourstars is solid enough without looking a likely winner. She ran well when second in a Grade 3 at Gowran and already has winning course form, but she still needs another step forward. Carry On Heidi is honest and stays well, though she looks more likely to run into a place than actually win.
This race may well come down to whether How’s Hannah is as good as she might be. She could be. Mullins has won this before, the mare gets weight from Zanoosh, and there is every chance she improves sharply from her hurdling debut.
But if the aim is to side with the runner who has achieved the most, rather than the one who might, then Zanoosh is the answer.
She has the best proven form, the best published rating, a listed win in the book, and the strongest fit on the HRB trends. In a race where one rival trades heavily on promise, Zanoosh brings hard evidence.
Selection: Zanoosh
Is she bombproof?
So so.
She is the right pick on what we know, but How’s Hannah is the fly in the ointment because her ceiling is still unknown.