The 1.20 at Cheltenham, the Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, looks deep on numbers but the race still revolves around one mare: Bambino Fever.
This is not a contest crying out for a wild swing. The Mullins mare has the strongest overall profile on the evidence in front of us and she is the one they all have to beat.
She sits right at the top on the HRB ratings, Timeform have her as the selection, and the historical pointers line up as well. That sort of agreement matters. You do not always get it in Festival races, especially in novice events, but here the main tools are pointing in the same direction.
Her form already gives her a class edge. She won the Champion Bumper here last year, which immediately tells you she handles the track, the occasion and the pace of a big-field Festival race. That is a major asset. Since going hurdling, she was beaten only half a length by Oldschool Outlaw on debut when lacking race fitness, then did exactly what a top mare should do next time by winning easily at Fairyhouse. The expectation is that she improves again, and that is the key point. Her hurdle form is already good enough to put her at the head of the market, but she is still open to plenty more.
The obvious danger is Oldschool Outlaw. She deserves respect because she is unbeaten over hurdles and is the one mare in the field who has actually beaten Bambino Fever. Her Solerina win was smart, she travels well, and she looks straightforward. There are no complaints with her profile. Even so, there is a feeling that Bambino Fever has the bigger engine and the greater upside. On raw ability, she still looks the better mare.
The interesting runner away from the front two is Carrigmoornaspruce. Timeform’s pace angle is hard to ignore. The forecast is for a very strong gallop and that should suit closers more than those ridden handier. Carrigmoornaspruce has the experience, the graded form and the finishing style to take advantage if this becomes a proper stamina test at the trip. She looks the solid each-way play for those taking on the favourite.
Of the British-trained mares, Kingston Queen has done little wrong and her Warwick Grade 2 win puts her in the conversation, but she still needs another step forward. La Conquiere is capable of better again, though this will expose any weakness in her jumping. Both have fair claims of getting involved, but neither makes quite the same appeal as the leading Irish pair.
The race shape is the one note of caution around Bambino Fever. HRB points to strong early pressure and a possible pace collapse, which introduces some risk in a 22-runner novice hurdle. That matters, because these races can get messy very quickly. Still, Bambino Fever is not simply a speed mare. She has shown she can travel, settle and finish, and that gives her a better chance than most of coping with whatever unfolds.
So the view is straightforward enough. Bambino Fever has the best class form, the strongest ratings support, proven Festival form and the most persuasive scope for improvement. Oldschool Outlaw is the chief threat. Carrigmoornaspruce is the one to pick up the pieces if the race is run too hard.
Verdict
Bambino Fever is the percentage call and the most likely winner.
Is the selection bombproof?
So so.
She is the right favourite, but this is still a big-field novice at Cheltenham and the pace setup stops her being a certainty.