This is not a race to get cute with. It is a 0-100 handicap hurdle over nearly 2m7f on soft to heavy ground, with a big field and plenty of runners who have had their chance. In these races you want a horse with recent staying form in the mud, a workable mark and a profile that still leaves room for a bit more.
Roc My Haarth ticks the right boxes.
His latest run at Punchestown reads well for this. He finished second over 2m6f on heavy ground, shaping like a horse ready to win one of these when things fall right. The form has a solid look and, more importantly, he proved he can cope with the sort of test he faces again here. In a race full of runners with questions to answer, that counts for plenty.
The HRB figures point the same way. Roc My Haarth tops that side of the argument and that gives more weight to the idea that his latest effort was not a one-off. He is a seven-year-old on a mark of 95, which is not obviously lenient but is certainly fair enough in a race of this quality. He does not need to improve loads. He just needs to reproduce what he did last time.
The shape of the race also helps. There is no standout front-runner and the overall setup suggests a proper test rather than a dash. That should suit a horse who can keep galloping and finish his race, which is exactly how Roc My Haarth has been shaping. Around Limerick, in testing ground, that matters.
There are dangers, of course. Gaelic Des Chastys is dependable and loves the track, but he is starting to look like a horse who finds one too good. Mickey Hulie is progressive and arrives off a good second at Naas, so he is an obvious threat. Mullanour has been given a chance by the handicapper and could run well again, while One And Only is interesting back over hurdles if returning to last season’s level.
Even so, Roc My Haarth still makes the most appeal. He has the right recent form, the right conditions and the strongest all-round case. He is not a flashy pick, just the sensible one.
Verdict
Selection: Roc My Haarth
He looks the most likely winner in a race where many of the others come with caveats.
Bombproof? So so.
He is the best percentage call, but this is still a big-field slog at Limerick, not a penalty kick.