A small field of six lines up for this juvenile hurdle over 2 miles at Limerick, run on soft to heavy ground, and tactically it could be a messy race. The pace forecast suggests no obvious front runner, which usually turns these races into a steadily-run sprint from the home turn. Positioning will matter more than raw stamina.
The race revolves around two runners from the powerhouse Irish yards.
Mode Avion comes here off a striking 12-length handicap win at Fairyhouse on heavy ground. Gordon Elliott’s four-year-old has progressed with each run over hurdles and now holds the best rating in the field (128). He travels strongly and clearly handles testing conditions. Elliott has also landed this race before, so the profile fits well. The slight concern is tactical: he can be played late and a slowly run race doesn’t always favour that style.
The obvious danger is Dschingis Desire from the Willie Mullins yard. She took a big step forward when second in a 21-runner novice at Naas last time, shaping like a horse with plenty more to come. Mullins has an excellent strike rate at Limerick and over this trip, and the filly receives a valuable 7lb allowance from the geldings. With only two hurdle runs behind her, improvement is very likely.
Kilmeaden sits just behind the main pair in the betting. He won a Punchestown maiden earlier in the season but ran poorly when favourite at Naas last time. If forgiven that run he has ability, but he needs to bounce back quickly.
The rest look up against it. Crooked Path is consistent but exposed and already looks short of the required level, while In The Minus and Elman would need dramatic improvement to get involved.
Everything points to the race being dominated by the two class runners. Mode Avion has the strongest form on the book, but Dschingis Desire has the bigger upside and the Mullins yard excels with these lightly raced types.
Selection: Dschingis Desire
If she builds on that Naas run, she should have the class and improvement to take this.
Bombproof? So-so. Mode Avion is a solid benchmark and sets the standard, but the Mullins filly looks the one with the most potential upside.