The 2.00 at Cheltenham is one of those Festival handicaps where the pace map matters almost as much as the form book. This year’s Jack Richards Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase looks loaded with forward goers, and that points to a proper test from flagfall.
HRB has it down as a very strong shape with high collapse risk. Six front-runners are identified, the pressure score is strong, and that immediately puts the focus on horses who can travel in behind, jump accurately and finish up the hill. Timeform is on the same page, calling it a strong pace forecast and noting that such a scenario could shift the edge away from some of the more aggressive racers.
That is why Jordans Cross makes most appeal.
He has already shown he handles the track and trip, and that counts for plenty in this race. His win over course and distance in January reads very well in the context of this contest, and Timeform is right to flag it as key form. It was not just a bare result either. He had to do things the hard way, conceded first run, and still got there late. Around Cheltenham, that is the profile of a horse with the right mix of balance, resolution and stamina.
He also brings the right kind of novice profile. He is progressive, still relatively unexposed, and his mark of 140 does not look beyond him. In races like this, you are usually trying to find a horse with graded ability hiding in a handicap. Jordans Cross fits that description better than most.
The danger is obvious enough. Sixmilebridge has done little wrong and arrives unbeaten in completed chase starts this season. He is talented, straightforward and clearly a major player. The issue is whether this race sets up as well for him as his recent small-field wins. If he gets involved too early in a strongly run handicap, he could be vulnerable late on.
Regent’s Stroll is another with a serious chance. Paul Nicholls knows what is needed for this race, and the horse remains lightly raced over fences. He jumps well and has the class to be heavily involved, but he still has to prove he can settle and finish off his race under this sort of pressure.
Slade Steel brings strong back-form and could easily outrun his price if the drop back in trip sharpens him up, but he is starting to look a shade costly. Stencil is interesting because the pace may play to his strengths, and Timeform specifically points to him as a possible beneficiary, though this is much deeper than the races he has been contesting.
There are others with bits and pieces to recommend them. Wingmen looks fairly treated if you trust the mark. Kdeux Saint Fray is solid and likely to give another honest account. Meetmebythesea has talent, but the likely early scenario does not look ideal for him.
The recent roll of honour tells you what sort of horse usually wins this. Caldwell Potter, Grey Dawning, Stage Star and Bob Olinger were not ordinary handicappers. This race tends to go to a proper horse, and the one who looks the best fit this year is Jordans Cross.
He has the course form, the run style, the progressive profile and the right race set-up on paper. In a contest where plenty may do too much too soon, he looks the one most likely to be delivered late and finish the job.
Verdict: Jordans Cross to win.
Bombproof? So so.