The Ryanair Chase does not look a race to get too clever with. Fact To File is the one they all have to beat and, on the balance of the evidence, he is the most likely winner by a fair way.
He won this race by nine lengths last year and that matters. Cheltenham, the trip and the demands of this contest clearly suit him. Since then, his season has not been completely spotless, but the key point is that he arrives here off a proper top-level performance after winning the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown. That was the ideal response to his below-par run in the King George and it confirmed he remains one of the best staying chasers in training.
From a ratings angle, he is the clear standard-setter. His official mark of 174 puts him above the rest and Timeform’s view is equally strong. They make him the solid choice and it is not hard to see why. He has the class, the course form and the proven ability to handle a strongly-run Grade 1 over this sort of trip.
HRB adds another layer in his favour. The race-shape view suggests a solid gallop with a proper test likely, and that should suit a horse with his blend of tactical speed and stamina. He does not need everything to fall perfectly. He can travel, jump and find off the bridle, which is exactly what you want in a Ryanair.
There are dangers, but each comes with a question.
Impaire Et Passe is the interesting one. HRB’s trend model gives him a very strong fit and he arrives here after a smooth comeback win at Gowran. He is talented and still has more to offer over fences, but this is a much deeper race and he still has to prove he can match Fact To File at this level in this setting.
Jonbon is as reliable as they come and his consistency is hard to knock. He has piled up Grade 1 wins and his recent form is, as ever, rock solid. The issue is whether this exact race is ideal for him. Cheltenham has not always brought out his absolute best and a proper end-to-end 2m5f around here asks a different question than some of the races he has been winning.
Banbridge is another with obvious ability. His King George second was a huge run and on his best form he is good enough to get involved. Still, Cheltenham has not been his happiest hunting ground in the biggest races and that tempers confidence.
The rest look up against it. Heart Wood is likeable and ran well in this last year, but he was well held by Fact To File then and needs a sizeable step forward. JPR One, Matata, Croke Park and Master Chewy all look short of what is usually needed to win a race of this quality.
So the shape of the race is straightforward enough. The favourite is not just the best horse on paper, he is also the one with the strongest course-and-race credentials. In a Festival race it is always dangerous to call anything a formality, but this is one of the cleaner pieces of the week.
Selection: Fact To File
He is the one with the fewest holes in his profile, the best recent top-class form and a previous Ryanair win already in the book. In a race where others have something to prove, he does not.
Is the selection bombproof?
So so.
He is the likeliest winner, but not one to treat as unbeatable.