The Kim Muir is rarely a race for guesswork. You need a thorough stayer, a horse who handles Cheltenham, jumps soundly enough under pressure, and is still well enough treated to cope with a rough staying handicap round here. This year’s renewal has plenty in it, but the one that makes the most appeal is Herakles Westwood.
He brings the right mix of hard evidence and current form. The HRB ratings have him clear at the top on 377, and that immediately puts him on the shortlist. In a race full of exposed handicappers, chasers trying this sort of test for the first time, and a few with questions to answer on recent form, that is a serious pointer.
More importantly, the Timeform profile backs it up. He won over 25.3f at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, and that is a major plus. Festival handicaps over fences are not the place to hope a horse will take to the track. Herakles Westwood has already shown he can do it, and he has been running consistently well here all season. He knows the demands of the place, stays, and arrives in form.
The likely race shape also looks ideal. The pace map points to a decent test, with the chance of the race setting up for something ridden with patience. That suits Herakles Westwood down to the ground. He has been flagged as one of the stronger late finishers in the field, and that matters in a Kim Muir. These races are often won by horses still going forward after the second-last while others have cried enough.
There are dangers, of course. Jeriko Du Reponet has the class to go close and is open to more progress over fences, but he has top weight and lacks the same depth of chasing experience. Waterford Whispers is respected after a strong run at Leopardstown and could easily improve again for this trip, but he still has to prove himself over this sort of distance in this sort of race. Kim Roque has a workable mark and a solid profile, but he does not look quite as complete a fit as the selection.
Recent Kim Muir winners have usually had a sensible blend of stamina, course form and a manageable handicap mark. Herakles Westwood fits that pattern well. He is not thrown in, but 137 looks fair enough given what he has already shown around Cheltenham. This is not a case of chasing a plot horse or trying to be clever. It is simply the strongest profile in the race.
There is one obvious caveat. This is still a 24-runner amateur riders’ handicap chase at the Festival. Trouble in running, jumping errors and positioning can undo even the right horse. He is also high enough in the weights that he will need another career-best effort. But unlike plenty of his rivals, he has very few unknowns.
That is why Herakles Westwood stands out. He tops the HRB figures, his Timeform profile is solid, the track suits him, the trip suits him, and the race should be run to bring his stamina into play. In a race where many have one or two pieces missing, he looks the most complete package.
Selection: Herakles Westwood
Main dangers: Waterford Whispers, Jeriko Du Reponet, Kim Roque
Bombproof? So so. He is the percentage call, but this is still the Kim Muir, and nothing in a race like this is ever straightforward.