The 4.14 at Limerick is not a race to get clever with. It is a low-grade 0-100 handicap chase over nearly three miles on soft to heavy ground, and that usually means one thing: keep it simple. You want a horse with recent chase form, proven stamina and the ability to finish off a race in bad ground.
That brings it straight back to Rideau Canal.
He comes here off the back of a solid win at Thurles, where he got off the mark over fences in a 16-runner handicap. He beat Nolans Rocco by 3¼ lengths there and did it like a horse who is improving in this discipline. The handicapper has reacted with a 7lb rise, but in a race of this nature that does not look enough to put him out of the picture. He still runs from a basement mark of 79 and carries only 10st 7lb.
The shape of the race matters as well. HRB points to a weak pace with only limited pressure up front, and that should suit runners who can travel and finish rather than tear off too early. Rideau Canal looks one of the stronger late finishers in the field, and that is a major plus in a contest where plenty will be feeling the pinch from a long way out.
There are dangers, but all of them come with a question.
Snow Punt is the Timeform pick and the case is obvious enough. His recent chase form is consistent and he should be suited by the pace scenario. The problem is that he is still a maiden over fences and has had chances. In this sort of race, serial placed horses can be expensive to follow.
Nolans Rocco is respected after his Thurles second. He is younger than most of these, has point-winning stamina in the book and could easily be thereabouts again. Still, he had his chance behind Rideau Canal last time and was put firmly in his place.
Duffys Hodey is probably the lurking threat if forgiving one poor run. His course-and-distance win at Limerick in December reads well enough in this company, and a return to that level would put him right in the mix. Even so, the latest effort at Down Royal was weak, and he now has to prove that was just a blip.
Aleish Lass is another with some each-way appeal after a fair comeback run at Thurles, but she may be slightly hostage to how the race develops. In a steadily run contest, she may not get the collapse she wants.
As for the rest, most look either exposed, out of form or too unreliable to trust. In these marathon Irish handicap chases, it is easy to overthink things and talk yourself into a price. More often than not, the answer is sitting there in the recent chase form.
That is the case here.
Rideau Canal has the best recent piece of form in the race, arrives in winning nick, has the right racing style for the likely setup and still looks fairly treated despite the rise. He is not a certainty — nothing in this grade ever is — but he is the most solid option in a race full of holes.
Verdict
Rideau Canal is the one to beat.
Is the selection bombproof?
So so.
He is the percentage call, but this is still a rough staying handicap chase, not a penalty kick.