This is only a seven-runner 3yo handicap, but it looks a decent little race for the grade. The market will likely centre on Artanis, and that makes sense.
She returned from a break at Wolverhampton last month and did exactly what a promising filly should do. She travelled well, picked up when asked and won with something to spare. It was only a novice, so the form is not bombproof, but the manner of the win mattered. She looked like a filly with more to come, and an opening handicap mark of 80 looks fair rather than harsh.
That is the key point in this race. Most of these have shown their level already. Artanis may not have.
Dagger Strike is the main danger. He is more exposed, but he is solid. He has been running consistently in small-field all-weather races and his latest second at Wolverhampton was better than it looks at first glance. The race did not really play to patient tactics, and Timeform make the point that a steadier pace here should help him if ridden a bit handier. Cheekpieces go on for the first time, which could sharpen him up again. He is not hard to see running well.
Loquella is the interesting one. She has only had two starts, won on debut and then finished second when still looking a bit raw. She steps up in trip for her handicap debut and comes from a yard that does well with this type. She could improve, but unlike Artanis, she still has to prove she can do it in a race like this.
Gorey Gold has course-and-distance form and is not one to dismiss back at Southwell. He won here in January and this return to 7f should suit after a lesser run over 6f at Newcastle. The problem is the handicapper may have him about right now, and giving weight away to less exposed types is never ideal.
The rest look to need more. Kanishka has bits of form that make him interesting on paper, but he is back from a break. Horwich has won races, though the form is not especially deep. Illy’s Roo looks up against it.
The race shape is worth a mention. HRB points to a bit of pace pressure up front, which means this may not be as straightforward for the likely leaders as it first appears. Even so, in a race of this depth, I would still rather side with the runner who looks capable of improving past her mark.
That brings it back to Artanis. She has the profile, the right trainer, a top jockey booking and the most obvious room for progress. She is the percentage call.
Verdict
Artanis to beat Dagger Strike, with Loquella next best.