This is a typical Southwell Class 6 sprint where the margins are small but the pace map gives us a useful angle into the race.
The early speed looks fairly obvious. Faster Bee, Beneficiary and Coast all like to go forward and none of them are particularly strong finishers. With three habitual front runners in a small field there is a fair chance the early fractions will be honest. That scenario often favours the runners sitting just off the speed rather than those forcing it.
Elvetham is the one that makes the most appeal.
He finally got his head in front at Kempton last week when landing a 6f handicap and the key point is that he escapes a penalty here. In effect he runs from the same mark despite a decisive win, which immediately puts him ahead of the assessor. He had previously been knocking on the door in handicaps and now that he has broken the maiden tag there is every chance he can follow up. The draw in stall 2 should allow him to sit just behind the pace and Ryan Kavanagh’s 5lb claim only helps matters.
Gundogan is the solid alternative. He has finished runner-up in two of his last three starts, including over course and distance last time when beaten only a neck. The problem is obvious: one win from twenty-seven starts. He regularly travels like a horse that should win but often finds one too good late on. He should run his race again but is beginning to look like a professional placer.
Piperstown is another who could benefit if the pace collapses. He is a course and distance winner and his recent efforts have been perfectly respectable. He tends to do his best work late and this sort of race shape could bring him into it again.
Faster Bee arrives in good form after winning and then finishing second at Wolverhampton, but the draw in stall 11 is awkward and he is another likely pace angle in a race that may already have enough early speed. If he gets involved in a battle up front it could leave him vulnerable late on.
Henry Tudor won a classified event at Chelmsford last time but this is a different test back in handicap company and he needs to prove that effort was not a one-off.
In a race where several want the lead, the runner who looks best positioned tactically is Elvetham. He is improving, well treated under a penalty-free run and should get the race run to suit.
Selection: Elvetham
Main danger: Gundogan
Each-way shout: Piperstown