The 1m4f Class 6 handicap at Southwell looks the usual midweek all-weather affair where proven course form and current fitness tend to outweigh potential. In a field of eight, several arrive with questions to answer, leaving a small group of runners who make genuine appeal.
The likely favourite Tenadaay is easy to see the case for. He produced a decisive performance when winning over this trip at Wolverhampton in January on his first Flat start for Fergal O’Brien. The manner of that success suggested he had a bit in hand and a 5 lb rise is not harsh on the face of it. However, that run came in a race that set up well for him and he remains lightly raced and not entirely straightforward to predict. At short odds in a weak race he makes less appeal than the market might suggest.
The more solid option could be Havachoc, who has done most of his recent winning on the all-weather and already has strong Southwell credentials. He completed a hat-trick earlier in the year, including a win over this course and distance, and showed he remains in good form when finishing fourth here over 11f last time. That race did not play to his strengths and the return to 1m4f should suit much better. From stall 1 he should get a straightforward run just behind the pace and looks one of the few runners with a dependable profile.
Hackney Diamonds is another who demands respect at this track. She has won twice at Southwell this winter and her latest run can be forgiven as the race did not unfold to suit. She tends to finish her races well and if the tempo lifts late she could easily get involved again.
Of the remainder, Velvet Red would have a chance if bouncing back from a poor run when favourite last time, while Shipshape is interesting on his first run for new connections after leaving Ralph Beckett, though the market may prove the best guide to expectations.
Overall, this does not look a deep contest and reliability counts for plenty. Havachoc, proven under these conditions and returning to his optimum trip, looks the one most likely to run his race and could be the safest play in a race lacking strength in depth.