This 7f Class 5 handicap at Southwell looks a race where pace, rather than pure ability, will decide the outcome.
The HRB race shape flags a very strong early pace with a high collapse risk, and that is the key piece of information here. Three habitual front runners line up in Goldmoyne, How Impressive and Golden Pharaoh, and all three regularly race aggressively from the gates. That combination strongly suggests the race could be run at a searching gallop from the outset.
When that happens over Southwell’s turning 7f, leaders often become vulnerable late on.
Goldmoyne arrives in excellent form and is chasing a hat-trick after wins at Southwell and Newcastle. He has been thriving for James Owen and his consistency makes him the obvious one to beat on recent figures. However, his usual tactic is to attack from the front, and with other pace angles in the race he may not get the uncontested lead he has enjoyed previously. Turning out quickly under a penalty also adds another small question.
The horse most likely to benefit if the race unfolds as expected is Packetofbiscuits.
John Mackie’s four-year-old has won his last two starts over this very course and distance, most recently producing a powerful last-to-first run to win comfortably. His run style is perfectly suited to a race where the leaders go too hard, and HRB’s pace data highlights him as one of the strongest late finishers in the field.
A 5 lb rise for that latest win looks fair rather than harsh, and with his yard currently in good form he has solid claims of completing a hat-trick.
Bee My Honey is an interesting runner after winning well at Chelmsford and remains relatively unexposed compared with most of these. She could still have improvement in hand, though this represents a tougher environment than the maiden she won last time.
Of the bigger priced runners, Thankuappreciate could pick up the pieces late if the leaders fold, having shaped well when finishing strongly at Chelmsford last time.
Ultimately, though, the race shape points firmly in one direction. With a strong early pace likely and several front runners competing for the lead, this contest looks tailor-made for a closer.
Packetofbiscuits fits that profile perfectly and is taken to land the hat-trick.