This looks a straightforward five–runner maiden on paper, but the likely race shape makes it more tactical than the formbook suggests. There is no confirmed front runner and the pace forecast is weak, meaning positioning could decide the outcome around Fakenham’s tight two–mile circuit.
The market centres on Mister Ursus, and that is understandable. Olly Murphy’s five-year-old has improved with each start over hurdles and comes here off the back of a narrow defeat at Chepstow. He travelled well that day and found plenty late on, confirming the promise of his earlier runs. On pure form he sets the standard and his HRB rating is the strongest in the field.
The concern is the likely tempo. Mister Ursus has been doing his best work late, and in a race where the early gallop could be modest he risks giving first run to something sitting closer to the pace.
That scenario brings Zarakerjack firmly into the picture. The Gary Moore trained four-year-old showed fair ability on the Flat and has already placed twice in juvenile hurdles at Kempton. His jumping has not always been fluent and he can race keenly, but the ability is there and he receives a useful 10 lb weight allowance from the older horses.
In a slowly run race he should be able to sit handy and use his turn of foot turning for home. Around Fakenham, where the home straight is short and momentum matters, that tactical edge could prove decisive.
Hans Lippershey has bits of form that give him place claims but his jumping issues resurfaced on his handicap debut and he looks vulnerable for win purposes. The remaining pair, Always Stronger and Callmesusie, have shown little under Rules and would need dramatic improvement.
This race will likely turn into a tactical sprint from the last, and in that scenario Zarakerjack looks the one most likely to control matters from a good position.
Selection: Zarakerjack
Is the selection bombproof? Medium.