Selection: ABSURDE
This looks the usual County minefield on paper, but the race setup points quite firmly towards Absurde.
The first thing to note is the shape. HRB’s Comment Shaper has this down as a very strong pace with high collapse risk, and that matters more than anything in a race like this. Six likely front-runners, strong early pressure, and only one prominent racer behind them is the exact recipe for a hold-up horse who can travel, settle and finish late. Timeform says the same thing in plain terms: the pace strongly favours Absurde.
That instantly elevates him above plenty of these.
He also brings the right course and race profile. He has already won this race, was third in it last year, and his Cheltenham handicap record is rock solid. In a race where balance, timing and the ability to come through traffic matter, proven County form is gold dust. Too many arrive here with theoretical upside; Absurde has already shown he can do it in the white heat of this exact contest.
From the ratings angle, he is not top of the raw HRB list, but 389 in this field is still strong enough when matched against the pace map and race conditions. More importantly, HRB flags him as a strong late finisher with a stable tactical profile. In a race likely to be overcooked up front, that is a major plus. He is one of the few in here whose preferred run style and finishing effort look tailor-made for how this will unfold.
Timeform backs that up. Their note is straightforward: he “looks sure to be in the shake-up on his return”. That may sound cautious, but the wider body of evidence is stronger than that. He improved again on the Flat last year, won the Sussex Champion Hurdle, and remains a classy dual-purpose horse with enough tactical speed for two miles but the stamina to keep coming when others have cried enough.
The obvious concern is the weight. He has to lump 11-13 off 155, which is never ideal in the County. But this is not a race where I want a tearaway lurker off a feather weight just because the handicapper has been kind. I want a horse with proven festival form, proven race fit profile, and a run style suited to the likely burn-up. Absurde ticks those boxes harder than anything else.
Main dangers
Karbau is the sexy one. Paul Townend rides, he is lightly raced, and there is a fair chance he is still ahead of his mark. But he is shorter than I’d want in a 24-runner County, and while he has class, he does not bring Absurde’s battle-tested Cheltenham evidence.
Bowensonfire is thriving and his HRB figure of 438 is the standout number in the field. He is admirable and arrives on the back of two wins, but this will be run very differently from the races he has been winning. He is a strong finisher too, but he may not get the same clean setup here under a much stiffer burden in a deeper race.
Sinnatra is an interesting Skelton improver from a handy mark. He could easily outrun his price, but he is still more potential than proof in this company and the likely pace may not be ideal if he gets too involved too early.
Jubilee Alpha is the one at a bigger price I could see running very well. Course winner, good travelling style, and this big-field handicap setup may suit better than some of the smaller tactical races she has been contesting.
Trend angle
The recent trends are plain enough. This race has been a happy hunting ground for Willie Mullins, who has farmed it with classy, well-handicapped horses that can travel and quicken off a strong pace. Recent winners like Kargese, Absurde, State Man and Saint Roi all had class well beyond the average handicapper. This year, Mullins again holds a very strong hand, but of his runners, Absurde looks the one most obviously fitted to the likely scenario.
Age-wise, six-year-olds and lightly raced improvers always attract support, but older classy handicappers with proven festival form absolutely can win this when the race collapses. Absurde is eight now, yet he does not look a spent force at all.
Self-critique and reassessment
The case against Absurde is not hard to make. He is carrying plenty of weight, returning from an absence over hurdles, and at eight he is not the sexy improver profile the market loves in this race. There is also the possibility that one of the Mullins second wave, especially Karbau or Murcia, is simply better treated now.
I also cannot ignore Bowensonfire’s HRB figure. On the numbers alone, he has every right to be at the top of the shortlist, and Elliott’s horse is coming here absolutely thriving. If the race is not quite as brutal early as predicted, his chance grows.
But even after reassessing it, I still come back to the same point: this race is far more likely to be won by the horse best suited to chaos than by the horse with the prettiest recent form line. Absurde has already shown he can absorb that chaos and deliver late on this track, in this race, against this kind of field.
Verdict
ABSURDE is the pick.
He has the course form, the County form, the finishing style, and the pace setup in his favour. In a race built for closers, he is the one I trust most to come alive from the second last to the line.
Bombproof rating:
Medium
He is the best bet in the race, but no County Hurdle selection is ever truly bombproof.