The 2026 Cheltenham Gold Cup is not lacking depth, but it may be lacking a bombproof favourite. This looks a proper staying championship, with a strong mix of established Grade 1 form, progressive second-season chasers and one or two with something to prove.
On the figures, Gaelic Warrior is the obvious starting point. His HRB mark is the best in the field and his Timeform rating puts him right at the top as well. He has been running with credit in the very best company, finishing close up in the King George and then chasing home Fact To File in the Irish Gold Cup. The class is there. The concern is the trip. This is the furthest he has gone and, in a race like this, not getting home properly up the hill is enough to get beat.
The Jukebox Man brings a different profile. He is unbeaten over fences, arrives here off a King George win and looks every inch a top-class staying chaser in the making. His jumping is a major asset and he is clearly still improving. The issue is price and proof. Kempton is not Cheltenham, and winning a King George does not automatically mean you win a Gold Cup. He deserves huge respect, but this is a different examination.
Haiti Couleurs is the one who could shape the race. HRB’s pace map points to him as the likely front runner and Timeform also notes that an even pace may play to his strengths. He is tough, straightforward and thoroughly proven for stamina, having already won the Irish Grand National and Welsh National before following up in the Denman. He will not fail for lack of heart. The question is whether he has enough class when the taps are turned on from the top of the hill.
Last year’s winner Inothewayurthinkin cannot be ignored because Cheltenham clearly suits him, but his season has been poor. He has not looked the same horse and arrives here needing a major revival. He is not impossible, but he is risky.
That brings us to Jango Baie, who makes most appeal. His HRB figure is not the standout in the field, but it is strong enough, and the Timeform view is persuasive. His King George fourth was better than it looks, he was finishing well, and Kempton did not look an ideal track for him. Cheltenham should suit him far better and this extra distance could be exactly what he wants.
He also fits the profile of a Gold Cup winner more neatly than some of the others. He is young enough to be improving, but not raw. He has Festival form in the book. He has tactical pace, he finds off the bridle and, importantly, he shapes like a horse who will relish a searching test rather than merely cope with it.
The trends help him too. Recent Gold Cup winners have generally been in the seven-to-nine age bracket, carried top-class ratings and arrived with proven Grade 1 ability. Jango Baie ticks enough of those boxes and still has more upside than plenty of these.
This is not a race to overcomplicate. Gaelic Warrior has the class, The Jukebox Man has the potential, and Haiti Couleurs has the stamina and pace angle. But Jango Baie looks the one most likely to improve past them at the right time.
Selection: Jango Baie
He is the pick to outstay and outfinish them in the closing stages.
Is the selection bombproof?
Medium
He is a strong contender in a very competitive Gold Cup, but this is not the sort of race where you can pretend there are no dangers. Gaelic Warrior and The Jukebox Man are serious threats, and Haiti Couleurs could make this uncomfortable for everything behind him.