This Class 5 handicap is not blessed with a great deal of quality, but it is a race where current form and finishing ability should count for plenty, particularly with no obvious strong pace angle in the field.
The race shape analysis suggests a moderate tempo with no natural front-runner, which could turn this into a tactical contest. In these scenarios at Newcastle over this trip, races are often decided by the horse that travels best and finishes strongest inside the final two furlongs.
Jodhpur Blue sets the standard
JODHPUR BLUE is the most solid piece of form on the table. Ian Williams’ gelding has been knocking firmly on the door with four consecutive placed efforts, the latest when beaten just a neck at Kempton eight days ago.
That run summed him up perfectly. He travelled well, stayed on strongly and simply bumped into one on the day. Off the same mark of 70, he remains competitively treated.
The HRB rating of 295 is the highest in the field, and the race shape data also highlights him as one of the strongest late finishers in the race. In a contest lacking obvious pace, a horse who can quicken late without needing a brutal gallop is a major asset.
Paul Mulrennan knows the horse well and from stall eight he should be able to keep him within striking distance before delivering a challenge late.
Golspie the main threat
GOLSPIE looks the obvious danger after finishing second over course and distance six days ago in first-time cheekpieces. The headgear appeared to sharpen him up and he now runs 1lb lower, which keeps him firmly in the mix.
However, his profile is a little less convincing. He has a habit of running well without following up, and his run style can leave him with a bit to do in steadily run races.
Clansman may get the run of the race
If there is a tactical angle in the race it could be CLANSMAN. The eight-year-old tends to race prominently and may find himself well positioned in a race lacking early pace.
He finished second over two miles here last time and drops back in trip. The issue is obvious: he hasn’t won for some time and often looks vulnerable when the race begins in earnest.
Others
Tee Aitch Aye is consistent enough but returns from a break and may find sharper rivals finishing better.
Bouboule is interesting back from hurdling but still needs to prove he can deliver a decisive finish on the Flat here.
The Verdict
In a race where several arrive with questions to answer, JODHPUR BLUE stands out as the most reliable and most solid on recent form. His finishing strength, consistency and rating edge make him the one to beat.
He doesn’t need to improve much to win a race of this nature – simply reproducing his latest effort should put him right in the mix again.
Selection: JODHPUR BLUE
Is the selection bombproof?
So so.
He is clearly the most consistent runner in the field, but this remains a tactical Class 5 handicap, and those races rarely offer complete certainty. A slow pace or a rival getting first run could make things uncomfortable.