A fairly typical early-season novice where the market revolves around potential rather than hard form. The field of ten doesn’t look particularly deep and most of the runners have already shown their limitations, leaving a small group of realistic contenders.
Forbidden Colours is the obvious starting point. The 750,000-guinea Kingman filly made her debut in a decent Newmarket maiden in September and shaped better than the bare result. She was green throughout but stayed on late to finish fourth, only beaten just under four lengths. That race has worked out reasonably well and the performance suggested there is plenty more to come with experience. The fact she holds an entry in the Irish 1000 Guineas tells you the regard she’s held in at home. If she has strengthened over the winter she should take plenty of beating.
Likeness sets the standard on actual form. George Boughey’s filly has been running consistently well in handicaps, finishing second on her last two starts at Newcastle over a mile. Dropping back to seven furlongs looks sensible and she’s clearly the most reliable runner in the race. The concern is that she’s already exposed compared to the favourite and has had several chances to win. She’ll run her race again but may simply bump into one with more upside.
Denver Doll is another with potential. A 150,000-guinea Mehmas filly, she showed promise when third on debut at Wolverhampton before failing to justify strong market support over this course and distance last month. That run was a little underwhelming, but she’s still inexperienced and the Crisford yard often improve their three-year-olds with racing. She’s not ruled out but needs to take a step forward.
Baandee could have a tactical role to play. She finished second twice over this course and distance in the autumn and looks the most likely pace angle. In a race where the early tempo may not be strong she could get an uncontested lead and attempt to dictate. Whether she has the class to fend off the stronger finishers late on is another matter.
The rest of the field look up against it on what they’ve shown so far, with several already well beaten in similar company.
Overall this looks like a race that should be decided by potential rather than proven ability, and Forbidden Colours appears to have the most of it. Her debut effort suggested there’s a good deal of improvement to come and if she takes the expected step forward she should be good enough to win a race of this nature.
Selection: Forbidden Colours
Is the selection bombproof?
Not really. She’s making her first start on the all-weather and returns from a layoff, while Likeness brings solid race fitness and reliable form. The favourite is the most likely winner, but it isn’t a certainty. 🏇