This Class 4 sprint looks a tactical affair with very little early pace on paper. HRB’s race shape analysis points strongly towards a weakly run race, which usually puts the emphasis on track position rather than finishing speed on Newcastle’s straight six.
That immediately raises doubts about the typical hold-up types in the field. Several runners here like to be delivered late, but in a race lacking genuine front runners they could simply leave themselves with too much ground to make up.
Irish Nectar sets the form standard
Irish Nectar arrives here off a narrow defeat at Kempton where he was beaten only a nose in a competitive handicap. It was easily his best effort since joining Michael Herrington and suggested the stable have found the key to him.
The handicapper has nudged him up 3lb for that effort, which looks fair rather than punitive. Importantly, Newcastle’s stiffer straight six should play to his strengths as he tends to finish his races strongly.
The slight concern is the likely race shape. He was held up at Kempton and could again find himself needing luck if the tempo is steady. Even so, on recent form he still brings the strongest piece of form into the race.
Novak looks the main threat
The one that could cause problems is Novak. His fourth over course and distance last time is better than it looks on paper after he was hampered leaving the stalls and forced to play catch-up. He stayed on well once organised and remains well handicapped off 69.
With a useful 5lb claimer taking the ride and a decent draw in stall 10, he could easily get a more prominent position this time and looks overpriced compared to several rivals.
Course specialists in the mix
Beale Street is another to consider. A three-time course and distance winner, he ran a solid race when just failing here 16 days ago. The concern is again the likely pace scenario as he is normally ridden patiently.
Veteran Raatea also deserves respect around Newcastle having won over the track in October and placed on his last two starts here. However, at nine years old and off a fairly stiff mark, he looks more of a place contender than a likely winner.
Verdict
In a race lacking obvious pace, positioning will be key. Irish Nectar brings the best recent form and looks ready to strike if getting a sensible ride in what could become a tactical sprint.
Selection: Irish Nectar
Bombproof? So-so. The ability is there, but the projected slow pace introduces an element of risk in a race where tactics may decide the outcome.