A competitive looking 1m Class 4 handicap at Chelmsford but the race revolves around one horse with clear upside: Shafdar.
The Ian Williams yard runs three here, which in itself tells a story, but it’s the progressive four-year-old Shafdar who stands out. Since arriving from France he has taken a clear step forward. His Kempton third suggested ability and he built on that emphatically when bolting up over this course and distance by six lengths last time.
That performance looked more than just a maiden win. He travelled strongly, quickened decisively and put the race to bed with ease. The handicapper gives him a mark of 80 for his first try in handicaps, which looks workable given the authority of that victory. If he progresses again, he simply sets the standard.
Stablemate Tonal is the solid alternative. He has been a tremendous servant on the all-weather this winter, winning four races since October, including two over this course and distance. He ran perfectly respectably when third at Southwell last time after going off favourite and should again run his race. The question is whether he has much improvement left.
Studious is another who arrives in good form. His recent figures of 3-2-3 show consistency and he finishes his races strongly. However, Chelmsford over a mile can be difficult for deep closers and he may find himself with too much to do if the leaders don’t collapse.
The rest look more speculative. Oceans Five is unexposed but still has something to prove in handicaps, while Echalar, Desert Heart and Bubbles Wonky have recent form that leaves them with plenty to find.
With several runners likely to force the pace, the race should be run at a solid gallop, which should suit a horse who can travel and quicken. Shafdar fits that profile perfectly and still looks ahead of the handicapper.
Selection: Shafdar
Bombproof? So so. Tonal’s course record and Studious’ late kick mean it’s not a certainty, but Shafdar is the most likely winner.