This looks a deeper race than usual and the likely pace could decide everything.
The race-shape data points to strong early pressure with several mares who like to go forward. Dinoblue, Spindleberry and Diva Luna have all shown front-running tendencies and if they take each other on it could turn into a proper test. Around Cheltenham, especially over this trip, that often sets the race up for something stalking the speed and finishing late.
The market is dominated by Dinoblue, last year’s winner and the highest rated in the field. Willie Mullins’ mare has been excellent again this season and arrives after two comfortable wins. On pure ability she is the one to beat. However, the projected pace is a slight concern. If she gets dragged into an early battle she may be vulnerable late on up the hill.
Stablemate Spindleberry is another high-class mare. She won a Grade 1 against the males last spring and had been thriving over fences before disappointing in the Irish Gold Cup. Back against mares she commands respect, but she may also be part of the pace and gives weight all round.
Only By Night is interesting at a price. She was a very good second in the Arkle last year and has the profile of a strong finisher. The step up in trip should suit given she won a point, and if the leaders go too hard she could easily be the one staying on strongest late.
The one who appeals most from a tactical perspective is Panic Attack. Dan Skelton’s mare has improved dramatically since joining the yard and is now four from four over fences for them. Those wins include the Paddy Power Gold Cup at this track and the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury, proving she thrives in strongly run races. She tends to sit just off the pace and finishes strongly, which could be the perfect style here if the race unfolds as expected.
Cheltenham form, stamina and a strong finish are key ingredients in this race. Panic Attack ticks all three boxes and arrives in peak form.
Selection: Panic Attack
Main danger: Dinoblue
Value angle: Only By Night
Confidence: Medium. Dinoblue sets a high standard, but the likely race setup gives Panic Attack a real chance to pick them off late.