hurdles often come down to tactics and that looks the case in the 4.20 at Doncaster. With just seven runners and very little confirmed pace, the race could easily develop into a steadily run affair where track position becomes everything.
The pace maps point strongly towards SHOTGUN RIDER being the one most likely to go forward. In a race lacking natural front-runners that could hand the Nigel Twiston-Davies trained five-year-old a significant tactical advantage. Doncaster can be unforgiving for hold-up horses when the tempo is steady and those racing prominently tend to dictate matters.
Shotgun Rider has only had two runs over hurdles but both efforts were full of promise. He finished second at Leicester on heavy ground before another runner-up effort at Market Rasen, shaping like a horse learning on the job rather than one fully exposed. Prior to that he won an Irish point, which suggests this step up in trip to around 2m5f should suit rather than hinder him.
The key factor is the handicap mark. Opening on 108, he looks the type with far more improvement to come compared with rivals who are already well established in handicap company.
Bitsnbuckles arrives in form after a comfortable win at Southwell and is an obvious danger, but the 7 lb rise demands more and his usual hold-up style may not be ideal if the race becomes tactical.
Saracen Beau is consistent and finishes his races well, yet he does have a habit of travelling strongly before finding less than expected late on. In a slowly run contest he may again find himself with too much to do.
Meatloaf has been progressing this season for Paul Nicholls and his Wincanton third reads well, but he has yet to win this term and his finishing effort can flatten out late.
The rest of the field have questions to answer, whether it be fitness, recent form or overall ability.
In a race lacking obvious pace, the one horse who could dictate from the front is often the one to side with. If Shotgun Rider is allowed an easy lead, this could turn into a race where the others simply cannot get past him.
Selection: Shotgun Rider
Confidence: Medium – the tactical angle is strong, but he is still inexperienced and this is his first run in handicap company.