This competitive Class 2 handicap hurdle at Kempton looks set to be run at a strong gallop, with HRB race-shape data highlighting two confirmed front runners and heavy early pressure. That raises the likelihood of the race setting up for a strong finisher rather than a prominent racer, something that is often the case around Kempton when the tempo becomes relentless.
Recent renewals of this race also point towards progressive handicappers rather than exposed types at the top of the weights, with winners typically coming from horses still improving rather than those already fully exposed in handicap company.
Double Powerful (IRE)
The horse that makes the most appeal is Double Powerful, who arrives with some of the strongest course form in the field.
His second in the Lanzarote Hurdle over this course and distance in January stands out as arguably the best handicap form on offer here. The Lanzarote is traditionally one of the most competitive handicaps run at Kempton during the season and he travelled strongly for much of that contest before staying on well to finish second.
That performance showed three key things:
He handles Kempton extremely well
The 2m5f trip suits perfectly
He is comfortable in large-field handicaps run at a proper pace
His latest run at Musselburgh is easily excused. The track can favour speedier types and the race didn’t unfold to suit a horse who does his best work late.
Crucially, the HRB race-shape analysis identifies Double Powerful as one of the strongest late finishers in the field, which could prove decisive if the expected pace battle materialises.
The Main Threats
Turndlightsdownlow has been a steadily progressive handicapper this season and already has two Kempton wins to his name. His recent placed efforts over longer trips confirm he is still improving, although his rising handicap mark means he may now be close to the limit of his progression.
La Pinsonniere is an interesting contender for Nicky Henderson. She showed useful form last season, including a Listed runner-up effort at Cheltenham, and her Warwick reappearance looked very much like a prep run. With Henderson operating at a strong strike rate at Kempton, she commands respect.
The Irish raider Moon Mission also enters calculations after an encouraging handicap debut third at Punchestown. He shaped as though further improvement is possible, though this represents a much deeper race than the one he contested in Ireland.
Verdict
With a strong pace expected and plenty of pressure likely in the early stages, the race should play perfectly to a horse who can settle off the speed and finish strongly.
Double Powerful fits that profile better than most. His proven course-and-distance form in the Lanzarote provides the strongest recent piece of handicap hurdle form in the field, and if reproducing that level he sets a very solid standard.
With conditions likely to play to his strengths, he looks the one most likely to come through late and land the prize.
Selection: Double Powerful (IRE)
Main dangers: Turndlightsdownlow, La Pinsonniere, Moon Mission
Bombproof rating: Strong 💥