This six–runner novice handicap chase looks a tactical affair rather than a searching stamina test. Kempton’s sharp 2m2f on good ground generally rewards horses that can jump accurately and hold a prominent position, and that could prove crucial here.
The pace map suggests a couple willing to go forward but nothing overly aggressive, meaning track position should matter. In small-field races at Kempton it often pays to be close to the action turning for home, rather than relying on a late charge.
Chuggy makes plenty of appeal in that regard. Dan Skelton’s six-year-old has improved markedly since returning to fences this season, racking up three wins before finishing second in a messy three-runner race at Aintree on Boxing Day. That contest didn’t play to his strengths and he was never really able to dictate the race as he had previously. Given a short break since, he looks the type who should sit just off the leaders and travel strongly into the straight, a position that often proves decisive around here.
Pure Carbon is the obvious threat and arguably the most progressive horse in the line-up. Harry Derham’s gelding has taken well to chasing, winning three of his four starts over fences. His Musselburgh success last time suggested there is still more to come, particularly as he made a couple of mistakes late on yet still had enough in hand. A 3 lb rise may underestimate him, though his hold-up style could leave him needing things to fall right in a steadily run race.
Top weight Secret Des Dieux arrives on the back of a Huntingdon success but that came in a three-runner event and the handicapper has reacted with a 7 lb rise. This looks a deeper contest and he may find it harder to dominate.
Tapley is a reliable sort who ran well in stronger company here on Boxing Day and should again give a good account, while Rightsotom and Jorebel both need to step forward on recent efforts to trouble the principals.
Overall, this race may hinge on positioning and jumping rhythm. With a profile that still suggests improvement and a run style well suited to the expected pace, Chuggy looks the one most likely to get the race run to suit.
Selection: Chuggy
Is the selection bombproof?
Medium – solid profile and race setup suits, but the progressive Pure Carbon remains a serious threat if the race unfolds in his favour.