The 3.00 at Uttoxeter is a proper test. Four miles, soft ground, 17 runners and no hiding place. In races like this, you do not need to get clever for the sake of it. You need a horse with stamina, a workable mark and the right run style for the job.
For me, that horse is J’Arrive De L’Est.
Timeform have him clear at the head of affairs and it is easy to see why. He comes here off two strong efforts in Cheltenham cross-country handicaps, shaping like a horse crying out for a race of this nature. He is still relatively unexposed over fences, he is well treated off 126, and he looks the type to improve again now stepped into a marathon handicap that should suit him far better than plenty of these exposed stayers.
The big positive is that he does not look like a one-dimensional grinder. He travels, he sticks at it, and he has the tactical speed to hold a decent position before stamina kicks in. In a race where getting detached can be costly, that matters.
There are dangers, of course.
Neo King is the obvious one. HRB has him right at the top and his Haydock run reads well. He is a thorough stayer and if this turns into a slog, he will be finishing. The concern is whether he gives himself too much to do.
Aworkinprogress is another with a major chance. He is progressive, won the Surrey National last time, handles soft ground and has already scored at Uttoxeter. He is solid rather than sexy, but these races are often won by exactly that type.
Deafening Silence has bits of form that put him firmly in the picture, especially his Welsh National effort, but he does look a shade more exposed than the principals and this may prove a race where a younger, less exposed rival has the edge.
As for trends, recent winners have generally been strong staying chasers in the eight-to-nine-year-old bracket who can cope with a searching test. J’Arrive De L’Est is a 7yo, so he is slightly against that recent pattern, but he has the unexposed profile to make up for it. In truth, he looks like the one arriving with the most upside.
This is not a race to treat as a penalty kick. Big-field staying handicaps on soft ground rarely are. But there is a clear difference between liking a horse and forcing one. Here, the case is strong enough without any stretching.
J’Arrive De L’Est is the selection.
He has the class, the mark and the profile to win a race like this.
Main dangers: Neo King, Aworkinprogress
Verdict on the selection: Medium confidence, not bombproof but the most likely winner.