Small fields can often produce messy betting heats, but this five-runner Class 3 handicap looks fairly straightforward on paper.
Haarar heads the market after a productive winter that saw him win at both Haydock and Carlisle. At his best he travels strongly and finishes his races well, and the race-shape data suggests he’s the most likely late finisher in the field. The issue is his latest run at Catterick where he disappointed badly as odds-on favourite. That effort raises a question: was it just an off day or a sign the handicapper has caught up with him?
The Hatchet looks the main alternative and arguably the more solid one. The Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore runner is still lightly raced and shaped well when second over this course and distance three weeks ago. That run confirmed he handles Newcastle and he remains on a workable mark of 115. With Jack Power taking 5 lb off, he effectively runs even lighter.
Pace could be important. Both Bucephalus and The Hatchet like to race prominently, but Bucephalus has been inconsistent and was pulled up in a stronger handicap last time. If he forces the pace he may simply set things up for something finishing late.
Fingal’s Hill is the class horse on ratings but carries top weight as a ten-year-old. He showed plenty of ability last spring and ran well at Doncaster in January, though his latest Kelso effort was disappointing. At this stage of his career consistency isn’t guaranteed.
Inedit D’Amour looks the outsider of the field. He won a weak maiden hurdle at Catterick but was comfortably held on his handicap debut and needs to find improvement.
In a race lacking depth, The Hatchet looks the most solid option. He’s progressive, proven at the track and arrives here off the back of a strong runner-up effort. If he reproduces that performance he should be very hard to beat.
Selection: The Hatchet
Bombproof rating: Medium – small field handicaps can turn tactical, but he looks the most reliable profile in the race.