This is not a deep maiden and there is no need to overcomplicate it. Skip To Victory looks the one to beat.
Her latest run over this exact course and distance is the standout piece of recent form in the field. She took a big step forward from her debut, went down only narrowly, and shaped like a filly who is still learning. That matters in a race like this, because most of her rivals have either shown their level already or come with obvious questions.
Timeform are very straightforward here and so are the visuals from that last run. She travelled well, hit the line strongly and looked the type to win a race of this nature sooner rather than later. The market confidence in-running also hints that she moved like the best horse for much of the contest. With normal improvement, she should take plenty of beating.
The main threat is Von Trotter. He has done little wrong in two starts, finishing runner-up both times, and his Southwell second reads well enough. HRB has him top-rated, which gives him a solid chance, and he is clearly reliable. The concern is whether he has as much improvement left as the selection. He looks the danger, but perhaps not the one with the most upside.
Whiskey Kisses has a fair bit going for her on old form and could be the one to pick up the pieces if the pace gets too strong. She has shown she can finish off her race and the shape of this contest could suit. The issue is the break and the fact she still has to prove herself over this sharper 5f at Southwell.
La Belle Forest is another with a place chance, but she looks more solid than exciting. Peregrine Falcon is exposed and has had enough chances, while the remainder need a fair leap forward.
The race shape suggests there could be proper pace on, with more than one wanting to go forward. That should stop this becoming a messy sprint dictated by one horse. Even so, Skip To Victory does not need to lead, and that gives her rider options. If she settles just off the speed and reproduces the level of her latest run, she should be finishing best of the principals.
This looks a simple enough call. Skip To Victory is the progressive filly, she has the best recent Southwell form, and she is the one most likely to improve again.
Verdict: Skip To Victory
Main danger: Von Trotter
Bombproof? Medium