This Class 5 staying handicap chase over nearly three miles on soft ground doesn’t look the deepest race on paper, but the pace scenario could make it interesting. HRB’s race shape points to a strong early gallop, with a couple of likely front runners and plenty wanting a prominent position. That setup often leads to a race that falls apart late, bringing the stronger stayers and closers into play. 🏇
Athair Mor – knocking on the door
Athair Mor stands out as the most solid option. He’s been runner-up on his last four starts over fences, all around the 2½-mile mark, and he hasn’t been doing much wrong in defeat. If anything, those runs suggest he has been crying out for a step back up in trip.
The move to nearly three miles should suit, especially in a race where the early pace looks strong. He’s proven on soft ground and his running style as a strong late finisher fits the likely race shape perfectly. In a race where several rivals either look exposed or unreliable, he’s the one bringing consistent current form.
Hawkseye View – obvious danger
Hawkseye View arrives in form after finally getting his head in front over course and distance’s shorter equivalent here eleven days ago. The Sue Smith yard is always respected in northern staying chases and Brian Hughes taking the ride adds further confidence.
However, the race shape could be a slight concern. If the pace becomes too strong early, it may set things up for something finishing stronger, and he does have a 3 lb rise to deal with after that recent win.
The Jad Factor – late threat
At a bigger price, The Jad Factor is interesting. His HRB figures are strong and he tends to be ridden patiently. In a race that could collapse late, that sort of hold-up profile can be dangerous.
The downside is his age and top weight, which makes life tougher in a staying handicap on soft ground.
The rest
Mobile Mamma won over course and distance last season but returns from a 348-day absence, which is difficult to overlook in a race like this.
Goodoldbill won last time at Sedgefield but has been wildly inconsistent throughout his career.
Several others arrive either badly out of form or with stamina questions.
Verdict
In a modest race, Athair Mor looks the most reliable option. His recent sequence of seconds shows he’s holding his form well, and the step up in trip combined with a strong pace could be exactly what he needs to finally get his head in front.
Selection: ATHAIR MOR
Bombproof rating: Medium.