This looks a typical sharp Dundalk sprint where pace will play a major role, and the early setup suggests the race could be run at a fierce gallop.
The pace map highlights Cuban Grey and Lethimfly as likely front runners, with Cuban Grey in particular a habitual pace angle over this trip. However, with more than one wanting the lead the early fractions could be aggressive, increasing the chance of the race setting up for a strong finisher late on.
On ratings the standout is Red Evolution, who tops the HRB figures by a clear margin. He won three times from just six starts last season and ended the campaign with a decisive success at Cork over five furlongs. Importantly he is also a course-and-distance winner at Dundalk, so the surface and track hold no fears.
His current mark of 85 looks workable, especially considering he runs 3 lb lower than his last all-weather start, and his profile suggests he is still improving as a sprinter. From stall six he should be able to sit just behind the speed and use his finishing kick if the leaders go too hard early.
The obvious concern is the 231-day absence. Dundalk specialists who have been running through the winter often have a fitness edge in races like this. That brings Buddy Batt firmly into the picture. He has won twice over this course and distance this winter and ran a solid third here in January. He is reliable around Dundalk and should give another good account.
Cuban Grey is another with plenty of course form and arrives after a respectable third at Southwell. The issue is the likely pace battle which could blunt his usual front-running strengths.
Clonmacash could be the one finishing best of the rest if the race collapses late, but he has developed a habit of finding one or two too strong.
In the end the race looks to revolve around Red Evolution. If he returns anywhere near the level he showed last season, his class edge and strong finishing style should see him take this.
Selection: Red Evolution
Bombproof rating: Medium. The ability is there, but the long absence introduces enough uncertainty to prevent stronger confidence.