A small but competitive Class 4 sprint rounds off the card at Southwell and the race revolves around the recent C&D clash between Master Of My Fate and Sports Coach.
Master Of My Fate – The One They All Saw
Master Of My Fate won this course-and-distance handicap 22 days ago, beating Sports Coach by half a length. He travelled prominently, got first run and stuck on well enough. From a simple reading of the form he’s the obvious starting point.
However, the margin was narrow and the race didn’t unfold ideally for the runner-up.
Sports Coach – The Better Run Last Time
Sports Coach was returning from a long break that day and shaped much better than the bare result suggests. He was forced to switch around the eventual winner inside the final furlong, losing momentum at a crucial point.
Despite that, he still finished within half a length. With a clear run he would likely have pushed Master Of My Fate all the way and possibly gone past.
That effort also caught the eye in the betting exchanges where he traded much shorter in-running, suggesting he travelled like the winner before the interference.
The Other Players
Michaela’s Boy is respected. He won at Lingfield earlier in the year and had been running consistently before a below-par effort at Chelmsford. Dropping back into this grade could see him bounce back.
Sam’s Hope is a three-time course-and-distance winner and the race-shape data suggests he will be finishing strongly if the leaders go too hard. The problem is that hold-up sprinters over Southwell’s five furlongs often leave themselves too much to do.
Ay Gee Ell is reliable around here but tends to weaken late under pressure and may again find one or two too strong.
The Pace Angle
There looks enough pace on paper with Master Of My Fate likely to go forward again, possibly joined by The Bell Conductor. That should ensure a fair gallop, which would play into the hands of a horse finishing strongly.
Verdict
Given the way the last race unfolded, Sports Coach looks the one with the most upside. With race fitness now on his side and hopefully a cleaner run in the closing stages, he has every chance to reverse the placings with Master Of My Fate.
In a race lacking depth, he looks the most likely winner.
Selection: SPORTS COACH
Bombproof rating: Medium.