This is a proper handicap hurdle, but you do not need to overcomplicate it. The race looks set to be run at a strong gallop, and that points straight at A Pai De Nom.
Timeform make him the clear starting point, and the HRB race-shape data backs that up. There is likely to be enough pace on to expose anything ridden too aggressively, and that should suit a horse who finishes strongly. A Pai De Nom has already shown he can cope with a proper test, and his Newbury win over 3m on heavy reads very well in the context of this race.
He is a progressive 6yo, still lightly raced compared to plenty of these, and he looks the type to keep improving in staying handicaps. Off a mark of 129, he still has room. That is the key point. He is not just in form, he is a horse going the right way.
The main danger is John Barbour. He is thriving, handles soft ground and likes the track, but this is a much stiffer stamina test than the races he has been contesting. He has every right to run well, though I am not convinced he will be finishing off as strongly as the selection when it matters.
French Ship is another with obvious claims. He has the class to take a hand if this trip brings out more, and his profile says there could still be a bigger run in him. The issue is price versus risk. He has to prove he can put it all together in a race like this under top weight.
Hartington should be competitive, but both Timeform and HRB suggest the pace setup may not play to his strengths as much as it will for A Pai De Nom. Santos Blue is solid and should stay on, but looks more likely to hit the frame than win.
Recent runnings have gone to horses with either a progressive profile or the right staying handicap setup. A Pai De Nom ticks both boxes. Dan Skelton has also done well in this race, which only adds to the confidence.
There are no certainties in a race like this, especially in a big-field handicap on soft ground, but the evidence points to one horse more than any other.
Selection: A Pai De Nom
Verdict: Strongest win claim in the race
Bombproof: Medium