This is not a deep race and the pace angle could decide it.
HRB race shape suggests one clear front runner – Ilot De Lisle – with no obvious pressure for the lead. Timeform also flags the same scenario. In small-field handicap chases at Market Rasen, an uncontested lead can be a major advantage, particularly on soft ground where rhythm and jumping matter.
The problem is that Ilot De Lisle has shown very little in Britain and HRB notes a clear behavioural pattern – he tends to weaken badly late. Even if he gets an easy lead, there is a serious question about whether he will see it out.
Behind him there is a cluster of runners who typically race patiently and try to finish late.
Grain Trade stands out among them. He already has course-and-distance credentials, having won here earlier in the season, and his second at Huntingdon in December is arguably the best recent piece of form in the race. Last time at this track he travelled well again before fading into fourth. The drop back in trip looks sensible and HRB flags him as one of the strongest finishers in the field.
Icare Colombe is the obvious danger. Still a maiden but he ran one of his better races when third at Ludlow in first-time headgear. That form is solid enough for this level and he usually stays on at the finish. The concern is that he has had plenty of chances and lacks the profile of a reliable winner.
Lone Soldier is consistent but has been beaten many times in similar races and looks more likely to run into a place again rather than win.
Others such as Dixie Cowboy and We Got Your Back would need to bounce back from below-par efforts, while Beat The Edge arrives badly out of form.
The race could be run to suit the closers if Ilot De Lisle fades after forcing the pace, and that scenario brings the proven course performer firmly into play.
Selection: Grain Trade
He has the strongest piece of form in the race, proven course form, and a running style that should suit if the leader weakens late.
Bombproof rating: Medium.
The pace setup gives Ilot De Lisle a possible tactical edge, but on balance Grain Trade looks the most solid option in a weak contest.