This Class 4 handicap chase over 2m7½f on soft ground looks set to be run at a strong gallop and the race shape could play a major role in deciding the winner.
HorseRaceBase identifies Always Busy as the likely front runner, but the key detail is the number of horses who like to race prominently just behind the lead. With The Big Reveal, Check The Score, Fern Hill and Handin Manypockets all capable of sitting close to the pace, the early fractions should be honest.
The race shape rating is marked very strong, suggesting the tempo could be strong enough to put pressure on those racing near the front and potentially set the race up for something finishing late.
The Market Leaders
Express Surprise brings some of the strongest recent form into the race. He won back-to-back soft ground handicaps earlier in the winter and ran well when fourth in a big field at Windsor last time. He stays well and arrives in form, so it is easy to see why he heads the betting.
The Big Reveal is another obvious contender. He is a course and distance winner, arrives off the back of a victory here last month and looks well treated off a mark of 96. However, his usual prominent running style could leave him vulnerable if the early pace becomes overly aggressive.
Call Me Arthur also commands respect. He won decisively at Huntingdon in January and his latest run can be ignored after falling at the first at Taunton. If none the worse for that incident, he has the profile of a horse who could still be improving over fences.
The One the Pace Could Suit
With the likelihood of a strong pace, it may pay to look towards a horse who can be ridden patiently and finish strongly.
Ithaka fits that description.
HorseRaceBase flags him as one of the strongest late finishers in the field, and his typical mid-division running style should allow him to sit off what looks like an honest early gallop.
His last run at Exeter is easily excused. That came in a much longer marathon contest where he was also out of the handicap, a very different test to what he faces here. Prior to that he had shown he stays well and handles soft ground when winning at Hereford over 25 furlongs.
Dropping back slightly in trip while remaining in testing conditions could prove ideal, particularly if the leaders begin to tire turning for home.
Verdict
This looks a competitive handicap but the likely pace of the race could prove decisive. Horses racing close to the lead may face plenty of pressure, which should bring the stronger finishers into play late on.
Ithaka looks the runner most likely to benefit if the race unfolds that way and at bigger odds than the principals he makes the most appeal.
Selection: Ithaka
Bombproof rating: Medium.