Natus Vincere Holds All the Tactical Cards
This five–runner Class 5 handicap hurdle looks a straightforward race on paper, and the tactical setup only strengthens the position of the favourite.
Both the HRB race shape data and Timeform pace forecast point to a race run at a steady tempo. There are no habitual front-runners in the field, and the pace map suggests Natus Vincere will be able to stride on and dictate matters. In small fields around Market Rasen, that kind of uncontested lead can prove decisive.
Natus Vincere took a sizeable step forward when winning at Huntingdon last time out on her second start for Olly Murphy. The market spoke strongly that day and she justified the support, travelling well and asserting late with something still left in the tank. Off a mark of 91, there is every chance she still has improvement to come, particularly now that she appears to have settled into her new yard.
The Sean Bowen factor also adds confidence. Bowen has an excellent strike rate at Market Rasen and is particularly effective when riding favourites over hurdles. If he gets an easy lead here, the race could quickly become tactical in the favourite’s favour.
The main danger is Gms Prince, who has been running consistently since finally getting off the mark over this course and distance in September. HRB highlights him as the strongest late finisher in the field, but that strength may be blunted if the early pace is as steady as expected. In a slowly run race, hold-up horses often find themselves with too much to do turning for home.
Livano Bello is another who regularly hits the frame but has developed a habit of finding one too good. His jumping errors at Sedgefield last time were costly and he again looks vulnerable to a more progressive rival.
The remaining pair, Rose’s Dart and Macho Sun, arrive with plenty to prove. Rose’s Dart tries a first-time tongue tie after three disappointing runs this season, while Macho Sun is out of the handicap and struggling badly for form.
Everything about the race points in one direction. If Natus Vincere is allowed to control the pace, the others may simply be playing for places.
Selection: Natus Vincere
Bombproof rating: Strong 💪