The 4.20 at the Curragh looks set up for a strong traveller who can sit just off the heat and finish his race properly. On the evidence from HorseRaceBase and Timeform, that points to Whip Cracker.
The pace angle is the key. HRB has this down as a very strong shape with high collapse risk, and Timeform says much the same with a very strong pace forecast. In a 26-runner handicap on heavy ground, that matters. Horses forcing it early are likely to make life hard for themselves, and the race should be there to be won by something getting a good tow into it rather than doing too much too soon.
Timeform adds another important detail: low draws are favoured. That makes life much easier for Whip Cracker in stall 7 than it does for some of the more obvious closers posted wider out. In this sort of race, being on the right part of the track and holding position without wasting energy is a major advantage.
Whip Cracker has the class for it. His Timeform rating of 116 stands out, and his handicap form from last season reads well against this field. He has run with credit in stronger races than many of these, handles testing conditions, and looks the type to be suited by a brutal mile on heavy ground. He does not need to lead, which is another plus, because this is not shaping like a race you want to be fighting for the front in.
The obvious danger is Orandi. He won this race last year, handles the Curragh, goes on heavy, and Ryan Moore is a notable booking. There is plenty to like. But he is now an 8yo, he is 6lb higher than for last year’s win, and stall 13 is fine rather than ideal in a race where the lower numbers are expected to hold an edge. He is solid, but not quite the standout he first appeared.
Akecheta also makes sense on run style and ground, but stall 24 is a real concern. The same applies to Engines On in 26. Both are capable of running on well if the race falls apart, but they need more luck than Whip Cracker does.
At a bigger price, Far From Dandy is interesting. Stall 1 is a clear plus, and he is likely to be played late. He is not the most obvious winner on bare ability, but the setup gives him more of a chance than the market may suggest.
The final call is straightforward. Whip Cracker looks to have the best blend of pace setup, draw, proven ability and ground suitability. In a race where plenty will be inconvenienced by how it unfolds, he is the one most likely to get the run of it.
Selection: Whip Cracker
He is not bombproof, because no 26-runner handicap on heavy ground ever is, but he is the percentage call.