This is a small four-runner mares’ handicap but it is not as straightforward as it first appears. Tactics will play a major role and the pace scenario could ultimately decide the winner.
HorseRaceBase identifies two likely front runners which creates the possibility of early pressure, although Timeform suggests the race could also become tactical. In a field of this size both scenarios are possible, so the key is identifying the runner most likely to cope with either situation.
Malaita
Malaita heads the HRB ratings and drops in class after some solid efforts this season. She was a respectable third at Ludlow last time and has been running consistently without managing to get her head in front.
The concern is her finishing profile. HRB behaviour data shows she can weaken late and at 10 years old she is not getting any younger. If the pace becomes stronger than expected over nearly three miles on soft ground, she could be vulnerable in the closing stages.
Queens Wish
Queens Wish is the progressive runner in the field. She has taken well to fences and her Southwell win suggested she had more in hand than the winning margin.
Her run here in December came in a stronger race than this and she shaped better than the bare result suggests. Importantly, HRB data highlights that she often stays on well, which could be decisive if the early leaders put pressure on each other.
With just 10-8 on her back and an OR of 100, she remains open to improvement as a staying chaser.
Overabottleofred
Overabottleofred is interesting because HRB flags her as a strong late finisher. On ability she is capable of winning a race like this, but her jumping has been a problem this season, including a recent unseat.
If she jumps cleanly she is a danger, but that is a significant if.
Musique De Fee
Musique De Fee carries top weight and has the highest official rating, but her recent form leaves plenty to be desired. She was pulled up at Hereford and finished well beaten back over hurdles at Kempton.
A revival is possible for her new yard, but on current evidence she looks the least convincing option.
Verdict
In a small tactical race reliability matters. Queens Wish is the one with the most upside, arrives here with a progressive chasing profile and has the strongest finishing pattern if the pace lifts.
Malaita is respected from the front but looks vulnerable late, while Overabottleofred needs a much cleaner round of jumping.
Selection: Queens Wish
Bombproof rating: Medium 🔶
The field is small and tactics could change the complexion of the race, but Queens Wish has the most convincing overall profile.