This is a proper slog of a race: 29 declared, a mile at the Curragh, and heavy ground. These contests are rarely won by the horse with the prettiest profile. They are won by the one with the right run style, the right draw and the ability to finish when others have cried enough.
That is why La Tulipe Noire comes out on top.
The first thing to note is the likely shape. HRB has this down as a very strong pace scenario with multiple front runners and a high risk of the race collapsing late. Timeform sees it much the same way, calling the pace forecast very strong and noting that low draws are favoured. In plain terms, this should be run hard, and that should set it up for something delivered late rather than a horse trying to make all or sit too close to the burn-up.
La Tulipe Noire fits that perfectly. She is drawn stall 1, which is a major plus if the low numbers do hold the edge, and her recent turf form on soft and heavy ground is right there for all to see. She won at Roscommon on soft, then backed that up with solid efforts in deep-ground handicaps, including a good third at the Curragh on heavy when beaten only a length. That is strong evidence for this test, not guesswork.
Her HRB profile is another positive. She is marked down as a strong late finisher, and that matters in a race where plenty are likely to go too hard too soon. You do not need a flashy story here. You just need a horse who will travel, keep hold of a good position, and come home when the race starts to fall apart. She looks the one most likely to do that.
The obvious danger is Kakori. Timeform likes her, and it is easy to see why. She shaped well on her handicap debut at Gowran on heavy ground, finishing from too far back, and she has the profile of a 4yo who can improve this season. The problem is that she has been handed stall 18, which is not ideal in a race where low looks the place to be. She is respected, but she has more to overcome.
Goldrush Kid also has to be taken seriously as last year’s winner, and he is back from a mark 2lb lower than when successful in this race twelve months ago. That is a clear positive. Even so, this year’s setup looks slightly better for a stronger closer drawn lower, and that swings things towards La Tulipe Noire.
So there is no need to overcomplicate it. The race should be strongly run, the ground will test stamina, and a low draw could be worth plenty. La Tulipe Noire ticks the right boxes and makes most appeal as the horse best suited to the conditions and likely race shape.
Selection: La Tulipe Noire
Main danger: Kakori
Bombproof? Medium