Small-field staying handicaps often turn tactical and this looks no different with just seven runners lining up. The likely pace isn’t expected to be strong and that immediately points towards those who race prominently rather than hold-up types.
Aire Spray arrives here in the best form. Sue Smith’s six-year-old won over this course and distance last month despite making a significant error at the final flight, yet still finding enough to get back up on the line. That effort suggested he had a little more in hand than the bare margin and a 4 lb rise looks manageable. Since the cheekpieces went on his form has clearly stepped forward and he remains relatively lightly raced for a staying hurdler.
Tactically he also looks well positioned. He tends to sit close to the pace without needing to lead, which should be ideal in a race where the tempo may not be overly strong. In a small field around Market Rasen that can be a major advantage.
Keppel Queen heads the market for Olly Murphy and is an obvious danger. She won well at Carlisle over three miles last month and the yard has strong course statistics here. The concern is her jumping, which has been described as sloppy more than once. Carrying top weight in a tactical race leaves little room for error.
Rosie Baloo is an interesting improver. Tim Easterby’s mare has progressed nicely through novice company and shaped well on handicap debut here last month when finishing fifth over a shorter trip. The step up to nearly three miles could unlock further improvement and she looks the main threat if her stamina holds.
Top Guy also deserves respect for Dan Skelton after winning a three-mile handicap at Aintree earlier in the season. His latest run at Ascot came in a much deeper race and this is easier company, though he still needs to prove he can dominate in a finish against rivals with stronger recent course form.
Escapologist looks consistent without being obviously well treated, while last year’s winner Grangeclare Diego returns after a pulled-up effort over fences and has something to prove after a short break. Seahouses likes the track but was well behind Aire Spray here last time.
When weighing everything up – recent form, course experience and likely race setup – Aire Spray looks the most solid option. He arrives in peak condition, has already proven himself over the track and trip, and his racing style should suit how this race unfolds.
Selection: Aire Spray
Strength of selection: Strong 🏇