This small-field handicap chase looks fairly straightforward on paper, but the race shape could still play an important role. Ffos Las on soft ground places the emphasis firmly on stamina, and with 15 fences over just short of 2m4f, horses need to travel well and keep finding when the pressure goes on turning for home.
There is no obvious front runner in the field, with several runners typically racing prominently rather than forcing the pace. That suggests a steady but honest gallop, with the race likely controlled by those sitting just behind the leader. In these situations at Ffos Las, horses who race prominently and stay well often hold an advantage over deep hold-up types who can struggle to make up ground.
Main Contender
El Rojo Grande arrives in the best form in the race and sets the standard. His recent sequence of wins before finishing second last time shows he is thriving at present. He handles soft ground, stays the trip well and generally races close enough to the pace to avoid traffic issues. In a race lacking depth, his current level of form makes him the one they all have to beat.
Main Dangers
Port Or Starboard looks the most solid danger. He ran well when finishing second last time and has been running consistently in similar company. His style is usually more patient, which means he may need the race to develop in his favour, but he has the stamina to finish strongly if the leaders begin to tire.
Walkinthewoods is another with claims. A previous course winner, he handles the track and the ground, and the 7lb claim on top weight helps his cause. His recent form is mixed, but if he returns to the level of some of his earlier runs this season he could get involved.
Others in the Field
Boston Joe has course form and the ability to be competitive in a race like this, but he needs to put a disappointing latest effort behind him after being pulled up. A return to his better form would put him back in the mix.
Henry Box Brown is an interesting runner returning from a break of over three months. He had been running consistently without winning before the layoff and tends to finish his races strongly. Market support for him would be worth noting.
Benignitas has struggled to put together a consistent run of form and was pulled up on his latest start. He has bits of form that give him a chance, but overall his profile is less convincing than the main contenders.
Ferando is the least exposed runner in the field but comes here with limited experience and a long absence to overcome. He would need to improve significantly to trouble the principals.
Verdict
This race lacks depth and the recent form of El Rojo Grande stands out. His profile fits the likely race scenario, and he looks the most reliable option in the line-up.
Port Or Starboard appeals as the main threat if the pace lifts and the race becomes more of a stamina test, while Walkinthewoods could run better than recent form suggests with conditions in his favour.
In a race where several rivals have questions to answer, El Rojo Grande sets the standard and looks the one to beat.