This Class 3 staying chase looks set to be a proper stamina test. Ffos Las over three miles on soft ground regularly rewards horses that stay well and finish strongly, and the likely race shape suggests the same again here.
There is no obvious front-runner in the field, but several runners habitually race prominently. That usually creates steady early pressure rather than a controlled pace, and when that happens at this track the race can turn into a grind from the back straight. Horses able to settle and produce a strong late finish are often favoured.
Fortunate Man looks the most solid contender. Jonjo O’Neill’s seven-year-old has been running consistently in similar company and his profile suggests he is still improving over staying trips. He travels well through his races and typically finishes strongly, which should suit the likely pace scenario. Off a mark of 127 he still appears competitively treated for a horse with progressive form in this grade.
Genietoile is another who fits the race well. Rebecca Curtis’ runner produced a strong effort when second last time and his recent figures suggest he is running to a career-best level. He is usually ridden patiently and finishes his races well, which could be ideal if the early pace becomes testing.
Face Dmusic arrives in good form after a win and a second from his last two starts. He runs off a low weight and clearly stays the trip, although his prominent racing style means he may be closer to the pace than ideal if the race develops into a slog.
Big City Roller is capable on his day and has the ability to finish strongly, but his form can fluctuate and he needs to prove he can deliver his best consistently at this level.
At a bigger price, Puddlesinthepark is interesting. He is a previous course-and-distance winner and the race shape could play to his strengths as a strong late finisher. The slight concern is the 100-day absence, so market support would be a positive sign.
Overall, this looks a race where stamina and finishing effort will matter more than early positioning. Horses that can travel within themselves and produce a sustained effort from the final mile are likely to dominate the finish.
Selection: Fortunate Man
Main danger: Genietoile
Each-way angle: Puddlesinthepark