A small but interesting Class 5 handicap hurdle over 2m5f at Plumpton closes the card on Monday. With just seven runners, this is likely to be a tactical race rather than a strongly run stamina test, and early positioning around this tight, left-handed circuit will be crucial.
The pace picture suggests Eliza Dolittle could have things her own way in front. She is the most likely front runner on recent evidence and, in a small field with limited early pressure, that could prove a significant advantage. Plumpton often rewards horses able to dictate or sit prominently, so those buried further back could struggle to land a blow unless the tempo increases unexpectedly.
Junior Des Mottes brings one of the most solid profiles in the race. His recent form figures show a horse operating consistently well at this level and his prominent racing style should suit the predicted race shape. He was a close second last time and remains on a workable mark. With conditions to suit and a reliable profile, he looks sure to be involved.
Eliza Dolittle is an obvious threat. She arrives here after a course-and-distance victory and has the added benefit of a 3lb claim from Tabitha Worsley, which effectively lightens her burden in what is already a tightly weighted contest. If she is able to secure an uncontested lead, she could take plenty of passing.
Taritino comes here on the back of a recent win and looks a progressive type, but his running style is less predictable. He has shown signs of weakening late in some races and may not be ideally suited if this turns into a steady tactical affair where those on the pace control matters.
Top weight Ghasham drops slightly in class but has yet to show enough recently to suggest he is ready to capitalise. He may need a stronger pace than looks likely in order to bring his stamina fully into play.
Of the remainder, Ephyra is lightly raced and still open to improvement, though she will need to find more on the figures. Kap De Triomphe returns from a break and would need to show a clear step forward on recent form, while veteran Bread And Butter looks up against it given his current profile and hold-up style in what may become a steadily run race.
Overall, the race appears likely to revolve around Junior Des Mottes and Eliza Dolittle, both of whom have the right blend of form, tactical positioning and suitability to conditions. If the pace unfolds as expected, they could dominate the finish.
Verdict:
Junior Des Mottes looks the most solid option on balance, with Eliza Dolittle a major threat if allowed an easy lead. Taritino rates the main danger if able to build on his latest win.